I'm not familiar with Tom Brueggemann and it remains to be seen if his projections come close to the mark. I find his $65M estimate for
Expendables 2 (that's $40M less than the original) low considering audiences gave it an A- Cinemascore which should translate into good word of mouth. But Brueggemann provides more handy background info (cost estimates, distribution deals, cinemascores etc.) than other box office reports and seems less prone to PR spin than Nikke Finke's.
by
Tom Brueggemann
August 18, 2012 4:27 PM
'The Expendables 2'
It's the dog days of August. Four new openings aimed at three sets of
audiences opened to varying results Friday. None rose above
expectations. And the biggest one, Sylvester Stallone's "The
Expendables" sequel, came up short.
Still, after three Fridays competing with the Olympics, the total gross
for the top ten came in at over $40 million, which was better than last
years' total of $31 million. That's partly because "The Expendables 2"
was more robust than any of last year's new releases.
1. The Expendables 2 (Lionsgate) - NEW (Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic score: 53)
$28,750,000 in 3,316 theaters; PSA (per screen average): $8,670; Cumulative: $28,750,000
The opening weekend for “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” of
testosterone action films will come in at about $6 million under its
predecessor, as well as below expectations, despite the addition of
Arnold Schwarzenegger in a major rather than cameo role this time
around.
Financeer and producer Millennium Films sold US/Canada rights to
Lionsgate (who also handled the earlier film) for a reported $35
million. That investment shouldn't be at risk, but this doesn't look to
be a goldmine for its distributor. The $90 million estimated production
cost likely was covered by presales to the rest of the world.
For all the anticipation about Arnold Schwarzenegger's return, it has
been nine years since "Terminator 3." But it had been seven further
years back ("Eraser") when a film in which he was the lead grossed $100
million (even inflation adjusted) in domestic release. So though his
presence certainly added a marketing hook, his added marquee value was
marginal. This movie serves as a reintroduction, not a test of his
drawing power. We won't see that until he opens a movie in which he
stars alone.
Simon West, taking the director's reins from star Sylvester Stallone,
began his film career with three consecutive $100 million+ films ("Con
Man," "The General's Daughter," "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider"). After two
sub-$50 million entries, this takes him a tad closer to his earlier
successes.
What comes next: Particularly with likely
front-loaded grosses, this could end up below $65 million domestically.
International would need to be considerably bigger to justify an
"Expendables 3."
2. The Bourne Legacy (Universal) - Week 2 (last weekend: #1)
$17,000,000 (-55%) in 3,753 theaters (+8); PSA: $4,535; Cumulative: $69,600,000
Good news/bad news department - this outperformed three of the four new
openings this weekend and ended up #2), but the falloff of 55% still
doesn’t suggest great legs. The final Paul Greengrass/Matt Damon
"Bourne" entry, which started off much ahead of this, fell a more
typical 52.5% on its second weekend, coming off its opening which was
$30 million better than this series reboot.
What comes next: A close call on whether this
hits $100 milliion domestically, and all eyes on mostly upcoming
international openings to determine whether to continue the series. With
more than 2/3s of territories still to open, this has taken in an
additional $28 million overseas so far.
3. ParaNorman (Focus) - NEW (Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic score: 74)
$14,008,498 in 3,429 theaters; PSA: $4,085; Cumulative: $14,008,498
The opening weekend gross looks like nearly $3 million less than that
of "Coraline," the previous 3-D stop-motion animated film from
Portland-based Laika Entertainment, despite showing in over 50% more
theaters. The widest release ever for the usually-platform opening Focus
Features, the number of course is also elevated by 3-D surcharges.
Despite that, the PSA pales compared to “Coraline” - $4085 compared to
$7,329.
"Coraline" ended up at $75 million in the US/Canada, but got to it
5-times its opening weekend gross by holding extremely well for several
weeks. Its February release included a strong holiday weekend in its
second stanza.
Focus is releasing this, as they did with "Coraline," as a
distribution-deal between Laika and Focus' parent company Universal.
Laika is also paying all marketing costs, making this a low-risk, high
potential benefit release for Focus/Universal.
What comes next: International for "Coraline"
was about two-thirds of the domestic take, which means its domestic
gross needs to be disproportionately strong for Laika. "Coraline," with
somewhat better reviews (although "ParaNorman" fared well critically)
was a 2009 Oscar Animated Film nominee.
4. The Campaign (Warner Brothers) - Week 2
$13,385,000 (-50%) in 3,255 theaters (+50); PSA: $4,112; Cumulative: $51,684,000
Down 50% from its better than expected opening, this ended holding
better than “The Bourne Ultimatum” and other recent second weekends.
What comes next: This should top out
somewhere around $70-75 million on a reported $50 million initial
production budget, meaning with international and other revenues this
still could end up as a modest recouper.
5. Sparkle (Sony) - NEW (Cinemascore: A; Metacritic score: 54)
$12 million in 2,224 theaters; PSA: $5,348; Cumulative: $12 million
With a PSA for the weekend second only to "The Expendables 2," a
production cost of only $14 million and a chance of ending up higher
than fourth for the weekend, this remake of the 1977 musical that, long
before "Dreamgirls" chronicled the rise of a Supremes-inspired group,
came close to grossing its cost the first weekend (remember, Sony takes
back only about half of that).
With a supporting performance by Whitney Houston increasing interest,
this had been expected to open in this range. Sony along with Lionsgate
seems to have the most regular success with African-American marketed
films, most recently with "Think Like a Man," which opened in February
to $33 million to a $91 million domestic total.
This is the second film from director Salim Akil, whose Sony-released
"Jumping the Broom" grossed $37 million on a budget of under $7 million.
The producers include the two from "Jumping" plus Debra Martin Chase,
whose previous credits include "The Princess Diaries" and "The
Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants," so this marks another success for
all involved.
What comes next: The initial Cinemascore A
grade suggests good word of mouth to help this ahead. While Houston's
role aided awareness, it is possible some potential ticketbuyers were
reluctant to rush to this before hearing good reaction from others
first. Also, with fewer than normal theaters in its first week, Sony
could decide to expand next week.
6. The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Brothers) - Week 5
$11,140,000 (-41 %) in 3,157 theaters (-533); PSA: $3,529; Cumulative: $409,916,000
Down another 41% with a sizeable theater count decline, by any standard
other than super-high expectations remains a big success. Still, week 5
of "The Dark Knight" was #2, with a gross totalling $16 million, far
better than this.
What comes next: "The Dark Knight" remained a
top 10 film for an amazing 10 weeks, and grossed just over $1 billion
worldwide. This is going to fall short on both counts, though still a
major hit.
7. The Odd Life of Timothy Green (Buena Vista) - NEW (Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic score: 48)
$10,909,000 in 2,598 theaters; PSA: $4,199; Cumulative: $15,187,000
This throwback to an early time when Disney regularly produced
family-oriented lower-budgeted films as its mainstay opened on Wednesday
in order to get two extra summer weekdays, as well as to help generate
word of mouth. Significantly, this dropped from sixth place on Friday to
seventh for the entire weekend, very unusual for a family oriented
film, which usually pick up business on Saturday.
Likely needing a bit more critical support than it got, and faced with
competition from the opening of "ParaNorman," this will make an eventual
at best modest return on its $25 million production expense.
This is Disney's second effort with director Peter Hedges, who came out
of modest indie success "Pieces of April" to score with "Dan in Real
Life," an early Steve Carrell-starring film similarly budgeted to "Odd,"
which went on to gross $68 million worldwide. This is his first film
aimed at families, which can be a tricky transition.
For adult lead Jennifer Garner, this continues an eclectic career mix
("Valentine's Day," "The Kingdom," "Juno" among the more recent) that
makes her difficult to pigeon-hole. Australian Joel Edgerton, still in
career-upswing after "Animal Kingdom" propelled him into "Warrior" and
"The Thing" and a major role in "The Great Gatsby," plays a much more
domestic role than he has done so far.
What comes next: Word of mouth will determine
the film's fate, and could alter Disney's willingness to take a chance
with such unconventional projects.
8. Hope Springs (Sony) - Week 2
$9,100,000 (-38%) in 2,361 theaters (no change); PSA: $3,854; Cumulative: $35,051,000
The 38% second weekend decline is slightly better than how much "Julie
and Julia" fell in its second summer weekend, which indicates decent
audience response so far despite initial confusion on how comedic this
film is. This is a case where position in the top ten might not be the
best indication of success - an eventual gross of over $60 million still
is within its possible range.
What comes next: Good enough to boost regular
contender and recent winner Streep or the even more acclaimed Tommy Lee
Jones into Oscar nomination contention? Performing below the totals of
"Julie and Julia" and "The Devil Wears Prada" won't help, nor will
Streep's recent win, but without at this (early) stage many contestants
she remains in the running.
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days (20th Century-Fox) - Week 3
$3,850,000 (-52%) in 2,737 theaters (-664); PSA: $1,407; Cumulative: $38,762,000
Down 52% while losing about 20% of its theaters and facing two
newly-opened family films is not an unreasonable showing for this third
"Wimpy Kid" entry.
What comes next: This looks like it will
achieve around 90% of the total gross of last year's sequel, a quite
respectable result, and encouraging the possibility that this won't be
the last installment in the franchise.
10. Total Recall (Sony) - Week 3
$3,500,000 (-59%) in 2,434 theaters (-1,167); PSA: $1,438; Cumulative: $51,782,000
Considering the major theater loss, falling almost 60% from last week
might qualify as a minor triumph. But since this already opened below
hopes and fell a similar amount its second weekend, any relief from this
would seem misdirected.
What comes next: This still has most of the
rest of the world to open, but it's going to take a major rebound to
justify the $125 million budget.
Wide (1000+)
| # | Title | weekend |
| Locations |
| Avg. | Total | Wks. | Dist. |
|---|
| 1 | The Expendables 2 | $28,591,370 | -- | 3,316 | -- | $8,622 | $28,591,370 | 1 | Lionsgate |
| 2 | The Bourne Legacy | $17,057,385 | -55% | 3,753 | 8 | $4,545 | $69,618,465 | 2 | Universal |
| 3 | ParaNorman | $14,087,050 | -- | 3,429 | -- | $4,108 | $14,087,050 | 1 | Focus |
| 4 | The Campaign | $13,127,289 | -51% | 3,255 | 50 | $4,033 | $51,435,826 | 2 | Warner Bros. |
| 5 | Sparkle (2012) | $11,643,342 | -- | 2,244 | -- | $5,189 | $11,643,342 | 1 | Sony / TriStar |
| 6 | The Dark Knight Rises | $11,011,349 | -42% | 3,157 | -533 | $3,488 | $409,787,260 | 5 | Warner Bros. |
| 7 | The Odd Life of Timothy Green | $10,822,903 | -- | 2,598 | -- | $4,166 | $15,100,918 | 1 | Disney |
| 8 | Hope Springs (2012) | $9,111,529 | -38% | 2,361 | 0 | $3,859 | $35,063,321 | 2 | Sony / Columbia |
| 9 | Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | $3,834,737 | -52% | 2,737 | -664 | $1,401 | $38,747,058 | 3 | Fox |
| 10 | Total Recall (2012) | $3,472,829 | -57% | 2,434 | -1167 | $1,427 | $51,755,272 | 3 | Sony / Columbia |
| 11 | Ice Age: Continental Drift | $3,005,507 | -53% | 2,274 | -829 | $1,322 | $150,191,923 | 6 | Fox |
| 12 | Ted (2012) | $1,543,080 | -52% | 1,169 | -1039 | $1,320 | $213,064,385 | 8 | Universal |
| Title | Weekend Gross | CHG LW% |
|---|
| The Expendables 2 | $40,000,000 | -- |
| The Odd Life of Timothy Green | $15,500,000 | -- |
| The Bourne Legacy | $15,000,000 | -61% |
| Sparkle (2012) | $13,500,000 | -- |
| ParaNorman | $13,000,000 | -- |
| The Campaign | $12,000,000 | -55% |
| The Dark Knight Rises | $10,500,000 | -45% |
| Hope Springs (2012) | $9,500,000 | -35% |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | $4,200,000 | -48% |
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | $3,700,000 | -42% |
| Total Recall (2012) | $3,300,000 | -59% |
Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt
are rumoured to be getting married this weekend, with the ceremony
believed to be taking place either on their South of France estate,
Chateau Miraval, or at their New Orleans townhouse. One thing is for
certain, however, and that is that Angelina will look fabulous.
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE COUPLE AT 2012'S GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS
We know she likes a thigh-high split, she’s been the
face of Louis Vuitton,
and for her Las Vegas wedding to Billy Bob Thornton she sported jeans
and a t-shirt – but what will she wear to marry her Prince Charming,
Brad Pitt?
Here,
Bazaar’s Fashion Director Gabriele Hackworthy chooses the three looks she would love to see
Angelina walk the aisle in.
Elie Saab Couture
'If Ange was to wear white she would definitely keep the look sexy with a deep V neck.'
Elie Saab Couture autumn/winter 12
Dior Couture
'I
would like to see Angelina take a risk, break some rules and not wear
anything too traditional. She would make the perfect femme fatal bride.
This
Dior Couture gown in red with her fabulous décolletage would be an 'entrance making' look.'
Christian Dior Couture autumn/winter 12
Gucci
'I would love Ange to wear something unpredictable. This Gucci dress is in keeping with her gothic side and so on trend for
autumn/winter 12.'
Gucci autumn/winter 12
Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway (WireImage/Getty Images)
Big-name designers spend millions on ad campaigns — but it turns out
they can pay an additional price to make sure their styles are seen on
A-list celebrities for events like the Oscars and Grammys. The fees for
actresses like Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway to wear a fabulous
gown or diamond jewelry can be as high
as $750,000. Some say it is the industry's "dirty little secret"
because it's "really aggressive" and "there are hundreds of thousands of
dollars spent." But other top stylists say there is nothing wrong with
the practice.
