Assuming Apple's denials that F1's budget hit $300M are true, even the IMDb listed budget of $250M is 10X M3gan 2.0's budget of $20 - 25M.
The studio co-opted the name and logo of one of the biggest annual sports series in the world. They assembled a Top Gun-type soundtrack. They've hyped the participation of current F1 drivers to the sport's 700M+ fans worldwide. They've done everything to make a big splash. So it is reasonable to assume that they did not expect to find their big summer blockbuster neck and neck with a low-budget horror flick.
On Aug. 27 last year, after heavy promotion that included a Venice premiere, Wolfs was pulled just a little more than 3 weeks before its scheduled Sept. 20 release. Or just before Wolfs hit the 3-week tracking charts. What we are seeing with F1s tracking likely gives a hint of what precipitated the abrupt switch of Wolfs away from a full theatrical release to streaming on Apple+ -- where it was eclipsed by The Gorge, another low-budget film that had zero promotion.
Apple may be finding out that to the ticket buying and viewing public, Brad now may be closer to Johnny Depp than Tom Cruise.
Apple Original Films‘ Brad Pitt movie F1 and Blumhouse and Atomic Monster/Universal’s M3GAN 2.0 hit three-week tracking Thursday morning, each with an eye at $30 million-plus in their respective three-day U.S. box office openings June 27-29, the pre-July 4th frame.
Some, not all, sources are seeing that F1, which cost Apple $300M, actually has the edge over the killer doll with $35M, and maybe a $40M start in the U.S. and Canada. F1, which also stars Javier Bardem, Kerry Condon and Damson Idris, was shot around the world at myriad Formula One races.
The first M3GAN opened in the post-2023 New Year corridor to a surprising $30.4M and legged out to $95.1M domestic, $180M worldwide on a $12M production cost, fueled by TikTok and dancing Megan doll troupe videos that made a splash at major landmarks and on late-night talk shows. The PG-13 sequel is strongest with women under 25 in unaided awareness but also solid in women over 25, as well as all men. In fact, M3GAN 2.0 came on ahead of its first chapter in unaided awareness and in total awareness (hello, it’s a sequel!).
Unaided awareness is that polling category whereby those being queried actually bring up the title of a movie they’re interested in without being prodded by the pollster.
F1‘s best demos are men in unaided awareness, but in first choice men over 25 are leading, followed by women over 25 and men under 25. In unaided awareness, F1‘s tracking is ahead of pre-Covid’s Ford v. Ferrari, which opened to $31.4M and legged out to $117.6M.
