Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Thursday, July 31, 2014



























Wednesday, June 25, 2014


Maleficent will likely break $200M by Sunday.  That would move it up to 4th in the 2014 domestic box office, just behind X-Men. Since opening weekend, Maleficent has been chipping away at X-Men's day-to-day lead which at one point was at $36M and is now down to $17.6.M.  If it maintains its current trajectory, it has a good chance of eventually moving ahead of X-Men in the US, but will need very strong grosses from Japan and China to catch it worldwide.  X-Men has over $110M in China.  After this weekend, Maleficent should be in 4th place on both domestic and worldwide charts, at least for a while.   Transformers will likely bump everyone down a spot.
-- Fussy


boxoffice.com

Weekend Forecast


Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, June 29
Transformers: Age of Extinction Jun 27, 2014 Paramount $99,000,000 $99,000,000
22 Jump Street Jun 13, 2014 Sony / Columbia $14,500,000 $139,300,000
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Jun 13, 2014 Fox / DreamWorks Animation $14,200,000 $123,200,000
Think Like a Man Too Jun 20, 2014 Sony / Screen Gems $12,000,000 $50,000,000
Maleficent May 30, 2014 Disney $8,700,000 $202,500,000
Jersey Boys Jun 20, 2014 Warner Bros. $7,200,000 $26,800,000
The Fault in Our Stars Jun 6, 2014 Fox $5,200,000 $110,000,000
Edge of Tomorrow Jun 6, 2014 Warner Bros. $5,100,000 $84,300,000
X-Men: Days of Future Past May 23, 2014 Fox $3,500,000 $223,700,000
Chef May 9, 2014 Open Road $1,200,000 $18,900,000
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.



Twitter Tracking

Thu Jun 26 as of 06:56AM PDT
Title # Tweets
Transformers: Age of Extinction 23,535
The Fault in Our Stars 14,355
22 Jump Street 10,762
Maleficent 6,476
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 4,202


Twitter Tracking

Wed Jun 25 as of 02:35PM PDT
Title # Tweets
Transformers: Age of Extinction 36,842
The Fault in Our Stars 35,830
22 Jump Street 35,043
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 30,041
Maleficent 13,913


boxofficemojo

2014 Domestic Grosses
1The LEGO MovieWB$256,770,7063,890$69,050,2793,7752/7-
2Captain America: The Winter SoldierBV$256,690,2793,938$95,023,7213,9384/4-
3X-Men: Days of Future PastFox$218,579,8914,001$90,823,6603,9965/23-
4The Amazing Spider-Man 2Sony$199,695,4024,324$91,608,3374,3245/2-
5Godzilla (2014)WB$195,576,7363,952$93,188,3843,9525/16-
6MaleficentBV$189,943,5933,948$69,431,2983,9485/30



2014 Worldwide Grosses

1 Captain America: The Winter Soldier BV $710.7 $256.7 36.1% $454.0 63.9%
2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony $703.2 $199.7 28.4% $503.5 71.6%
3 X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox $696.5 $218.6 31.4% $477.9 68.6%
4 Maleficent BV $525.5 $189.9 36.1% $335.6 63.9%


boxofficemojo
Forecast (June 27-29)
1. Transformers 4 - $96 million
2. How to Train Your Dragon - $15.5 million (-37%)
3. 22 Jump Street - $15 million (-45%)
4. Think Like a Man Too - $12.3 million (-58%)











Thursday, May 1, 2014



2 million of you are not afraid. You only have one month left until you discover the truth about Maleficent.


Random Thoughts

What does 2 million Facebook likes translate to in box office dollars?  Looking at the numbers from other films, there currently isn't any way to extrapolate a dollar figure   A very large number of likes (anything over 500K qualifies as very large) usually means a very healthy box office but there is no way of knowing precisely how much.   Among coming non-franchise releases - Godzilla has 910K,  Edge of Tomorrow has 309K, The Fault in our Stars has 1.8M,  Hercules has 106K,  Jupiter Ascending has 87K,  Unbroken has 28K.  Among previously released films (not entirely comparable since it already includes audience reactions) - World War Z has 536K likes, 12 Years A Slave has 629K, Moneyball has 412K,  Salt has a rather stunning 5.7M, The Tourist has 1.6M. 

Some sites have tried to incorporate social media buzz into their projections, but no one has yet developed a reliable algorithm that accurately translates Facebook likes, Twitter mentions, and other social media activity into box office dollars.  Divergent illustrates the difficulty in finding a simple correlation.  It has long dominated boxoffice.com's twitter tracking and yet its box office performance has been modest compared to other recent YA adaptations like Hunger Games  and Twilight.  A devoted but limited army of fans that tweet incessantly could skew the numbers, as seems to be the case here.

Facebook likes might be a better barometer because you can only "like" once.  Jason Klein, co-CEO and founder of Listen First Media, had noted Maleficent has more Facebook fans "than any other non-franchise film with a 2014 release date."  Maleficent has 2 million likes to Godzilla's 910K.  Maleficent also leads Godzilla in "want to see" on Rotten Tomatoes (but with Godzilla, which opens 2 weeks ahead,  already in the middle of its final blitz, the gap has shrunk over the last few days.  Maleficent's own blitz should start next week).  Boxofficemojo calls Godzilla "arguably the most-anticipated non-sequel this Summer."   Godzilla may well be that but shouldn't that anticipation be manifested in Facebook and Rotten Tomatoes?  Disney's last live-action fairytale,  Oz the Great and Powerful, has 1.2M likes but most current domestic forecasts place Maleficent below its $234M gross.

Maleficent has also been among the top films in the daily Twitter tallies by boxoffice.com.  X-Men surprisingly has been trailing Godzilla and Maleficent in recent days despite opening earlier than Maleficent.  HitFix and boxofficemojo both project X-Men to be the Summer's second highest domestic grosser.  All three films are May releases and at this point in their cycle, all three have been releasing promotional materials at regular intervals to ramp up interest.  It seems logical to assume that all things being equal, their Twitter mentions should be fairly reflective of relative interest.  So why is X-Men apparently lagging?

Someone more knowledgeable, an expert in social media and statistics and not an entertainment writer, should be able to come up with an explanation.  A study like the fivethirtyeight.com post on Summer blockbusters would help.

Projections are, of course, affected by the writers' bias; their judgement often colored by their own likes, dislikes and hopes for the films.  Boxofficemojo, for example, is convinced that Transformers 4 will do less than all previous installments because the previous films "aren't held in high esteem" -- this despite the fact that the last film, the billion-dollar grossing T3, is the top grosser in the franchise.  In the same breath he is also convinced that Godzilla is "mighty enough to come close to matching last Summer's World War Z ($202.4 million)" and also expects its international returns to be  'significantly higher than Pacific Rim's $309 million."  Without any specific data to back up any of these predictions, he seems to be mainly projecting his feelings to the rest of the world.

Boxoffice.com on the other hand went to bat hard for Amazing Spider-man 2, predicting it "should be able to top 9 digits and be the first film on the year to crack $100 million, while also securing the number 1 opening of 2014."

It will be interesting to see which, if any, of these predictions come true.

Being almost all men, the writers' taste in films definitely skews fanboy, and to the extent that fanboy interest drives the box office of a lot of Summer blockbusters, that serves them well.  It is why films of interest to fanboys dominate discussions on movie sites and drives their traffic.  But it also means there is no one making projections with an equal grasp of the other market segments.  Last year, Frozen was totally ignored in lists of projected top performers. 

Studio tracking, while  subject to sampling error and tricky to interpret, remains the most impartial source for box office projections because it is based on surveys of likely moviegoers, not subjective guesswork.  Tracking is mainly designed to guide studios with their marketing efforts and not predict the box office but I have yet to see a more reliable alternative.  THR, Variety and the L.A. Times usually have access to the data.  With a month to go before its release, it will be at least another week before we get initial tracking for Maleficent

A non-scientific scan of Twitter shows Maleficent has large numbers of fanboys and fangirls very excited to see it.  It is being mentioned alongside Amazing Spider-man 2, Godzilla and X-Men as must-sees by the boys, while parents of tween girls who loved Frozen say they now can't wait to see Maleficent. But the largest number of those tweeting their interest are women who only or primarily want to see Maleficent.  Men tend to list the film together with other action blockbusters like Godzilla, X-Men and Transformers.  A Venn diagram would show interesting overlaps of disparate movie tastes as Maleficent is also mentioned along with Sin City 2, 22 Jump St, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Lucy, Neighbors, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Fault in Our Stars in various must-see lists.   But other than showing that it has four-quadrant appeal, the box office impact of such social media buzz is hard to quantify.

Ultimately, how well Maleficent does depends on how good it actually is and how much audiences embrace it.  Previews have elicited favorable comparisons of Maleficent's forest kingdom to Avatar's Pandora, which is not surprising since Robert Stromberg designed Pandora, and we know Maleficent boasts a more seasoned cast, now if only the story can resonate like Frozen...

The fact that the film is holding an early premiere could be a sign of the studio's confidence in it.  They're willing to let audience feedback leak out early so they must feel it will help boost interest.  We can only hope.

-- Fussy












A random sample of tweets today, fairly representative of what's been appearing the past few weeks

























Tuesday, April 22, 2014




ropeofsilicon

2014 Summer Box Office Top Ten Predictions, Global and Domestic

By:
Tuesday,




If I were only considering the domestic possibilities I'd have at least 16 titles to choose from...
My guess would be a film will need to make at least $150 million to crack this year's domestic summer top ten. That said, let's look at both.

Domestic Summer Box Office Predictions

  1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
  2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
  3. How to Train Your Dragon 2
  4. Guardians of the Galaxy
  5. Maleficent
  6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  7. X-Men: Days of Future Past
  8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
  9. 22 Jump Street
  10. Godzilla


Global Summer Box Office Predictions

  1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
  2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy
  4. Godzilla
  5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
  6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  7. How to Train Your Dragon 2
  8. X-Men: Days of Future Past
  9. Maleficent
  10. Edge of Tomorrow

I wasn't asked to come up with dollar figures (and they wouldn't be accurate if I tried), but I do expect Transformers 4 to cross one billion and wouldn't be surprised to see Spider-Man 2 do the same. It's hard to tell what Guardians of the Galaxy will do as it is a new Marvel property, but I know I'm interested in seeing it and Marvel has pretty much got this marketing thing down pat.
I'm also curious about Maleficent, which seems like a film that could do much better than where I have it positioned, especially if it's any good.

Read the full post at  ropeofsilicon





Sunday, April 20, 2014



motleyfool

Move Over 'Frozen' - This Could Be Disney's Next $1 Billion Movie



It's not often you see a movie exceeding $1 billion in global box office sales.
Of the nearly 700 films released over the past year, only two were able to do so. Curiously enough, both came from the creative minds at The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS  ) : First with $1.125 billion last summer from Disney Marvel's Iron Man 3, and more recently with $1.11 billion (and counting) from Walt Disney Animation's Frozen.

 In fact, Disney accounts for seven of the 18 films that have ever managed to top the $1 billion mark worldwide -- unadjusted for inflation, that is -- with some of its other massive titles including Marvel's The Avengers, Pixar's Toy Story 3, and two films from the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.

But this begs the question: What will Disney's next $1 billion movie be?
I think investors and movie fans need look no further than the May 30 debut of Maleficent:





If the name sounds familiar, it's because Maleficent is the same thorn-manifesting, dragon-morphing, prince-kidnapping antagonist you've known and loathed ever since Disney first released Sleeping Beauty in 1959.

This in mind, nobody can guarantee Maleficent will ultimately be massive enough to reach $1 billion at the box office this year. But I love its chances considering Disney enlisted the exceptional writing talents of Linda Woolverton, whose work includes 1994's The Lion King and 2010's Alice in Wonderland. Even unadjusted for inflation, The Lion King achieved an incredible $987.5 million in worldwide box office sales 20 years ago, while Alice in Wonderland managed to reach $1.025 billion.
Regarding the latter, it appears Disney has identified an intriguing recipe for success: spend buckets of money to create convincing live-action takes on classic animated properties. While Disney hasn't released official production budget numbers for Maleficent, it seems fair to assume it must be in the neighborhood of the $200 million Disney spent bringing Alice in Wonderland to life.

Only this time, Disney has replaced Johnny Depp's supporting role as the Mad Hatter with Angelina Jolie headlining as Maleficent. Just take a look at Maleficent's latest goosebump-inducing trailer:




What's more, there's a notable lack of closely scheduled big-budget competition for Maleficent in its crucial first weekends.

By the time Maleficent is released in the U.S., News Corp's  (NASDAQ: NWS  ) 20th Century Fox will have already enjoyed the spoils of X-Men: Days of Future Past for a full week. Meanwhile, the only other film simultaneously entering wide release will be Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA  ) Universal's A Million Ways to Die in The West. 

Nobody expects Comcast's western comedy to set any records, but X-Men: Days of Future Past could be huge -- and it had better be for the sake of News Corp., which is rumored to have spent upwards of $240 million on the production. But even then, it's not as though the target audiences will overlap to a great degree between News Corp's mutant-powered action flick and Disney's princess-infused fantasy.

After that, it's not until three weekends following Maleficent's release audiences will be able to enjoy DreamWorks Animation's (NASDAQ: DWA  ) worthy sequel in How to Train Your Dragon 2. By the time DreamWorks tries its hand at grabbing movie-goers' attention, Maleficent will have already secured the lions share of its early sales.

What do you think? Will Maleficent be able to reach $1 billion in total sales? Even coming close would be a huge win for Disney, which has already rewarded investors handsomely by nearly quadrupling over the past five years alone.



Friday, March 7, 2014


Unbroken has made nearly every list of presumptive 2015 Oscar contenders that I've so far come across, boosted no doubt by the impressive sneak peek timed for the Winter Olympics.  But even before a single still from the film was released, it was already circling high on the pundits' radar on the strength of Louie Zamperini's remarkable story, Laura Hillenbrand's bestselling book, and especially the impressive behind-the-scenes talent led by Oscar favorites the Coen brothers and Roger Deakins.

The beautifully shot and emotionally stirring preview which NBC aired during its Sochi Olympics telecast not only validated Unbroken's status as a contender, but further cemented its position as a frontrunner.  If it turns out to be at least as good as the preview suggests, it will almost certainly be among the 5 to 10 films vying for Best Picture.  The race for Best Director is tighter if only because there are fewer slots available and its harder for a relative neophyte to join the club.  But Angelina's popularity has surged in the last year or so and I am certain her warm and gracious manner towards Sidney Poitier earned her a few new fans among the mostly older Academy directors' branch members. So at this point I think odds are great that Unbroken will have at least Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Soundtrack nods.

 -- Fussy




HollywoodElsewhere
Jeff Wells

Nobody knows anything and I’m obviously just guessing at this stage, but here are the films I’m presuming will be among the final picks: 1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu‘s comedic Birdman (seen in a rough version by a friend last July and described as AGI’s “best, most humanistic work!”); 2. J.C. Chandor‘s A Very Violent Year (’80s-set, Sidney Lumet-ish Manhattan crime drama); 3. Ridley Scott‘s Exodus (Ridley Scott/Kingdom of Heaven treatment given to Biblical tale of Moses, Egyptians and Hebrew slaves); 4. Angelina Jolie‘s Unbroken (World War II survival saga, All Is Lost/Life of Pi + Japanese prison camp); 5. Jean Marc Vallee‘s Wild (makeup-free Reese Witherspoon discovering herself and the American character on a long-distance hike); 6. Saul DibbsSuite Francaise (married rural-residing French woman has affair with German solder during World War II); 7. Michel HazanaviciusThe Search (remake of Fred Zinneman‘s same-titled 1948 film, relationship between a woman and a young boy in war-torn Chechnya, Berenice Bejo and Annette Bening costarring); 8. Jason Reitman‘s Men, Women & Chidren (ensemble social-sexual dramedy with Adam Sandler, Jennifer Garner, Judy Greer, et. al.), and 9. Sarah Gavron‘s Suffragette (British-set, turn-of-the-century drama about female voting-rights struggle, script by The Queen‘s Abi Morgan, costarring Carey Mulligan, Helena Bonham Carter and Meryl Streep).

Read the rest at HollywoodElsewhere




theplaylist

Premature Oscar Predictions: The 2015 Best Picture Contenders

Features by Oliver Lyttelton
March 5, 2014 1:19 PM

....

And that generally means one thing: the 2014/2015 awards season is getting underway. Like it or not, campaigns are being planned for the months to come, and distributors are ready to start the whole damn thing again. We'll be doing our best to ignore it for as long as possible, but to put a cap on our awards coverage until the end of the summer, and as we've done the last few years, we're going to pick out some of the films that look likely to dominate proceedings over the next 51 weeks.

Our track record isn't too bad — if you exclude "Foxcatcher" and "Monuments Men," whose release dates were delayed into this year, we called five of the nine Best Picture nominees correctly last February, and all five of the best Director nominees, which isn't too shabby. Will we have the same luck this time? You can take a look at our Top 10 Best Picture picks and 5 That Could Surprise below, in rough order of likelihood, and stay tuned for our look at the acting categories next week. As ever, have your own say in the comments section below.

Our Top 10 Picks

"Unbroken"

A little under ten months from release, and this true-life tale already looks like a potential heavyweight (even a frontrunner) on paper, and Universal have already started selling it as such, debuting the first-look at footage, which lays out the story, during the Winter Olympics. So why is this one already high in the mix? For one, the film is directed by Oscar darling Angelina Jolie — two awards, including her humanitarian prize this year — it's written by a team equally familiar with the Academy Awards stage (Richard LaGravenese, nominated for "The Fisher King"; William Nicholson, nominated for "Shadowlands" and "Gladiator"; and the Coen Bros, who have four Oscars and fourteen nominations between them), and it's based on the book by Laura Hillebrand, who also provided the source material for Best Picture nominee "Seabiscuit." For another, it tells the true story of Olympian Louis Zamperini, an athlete who fought in World War II, survived a plane crash and 47 days at sea, before being held for three years in a POW camp. So, yeah, it has Oscar written all over it (and it's shot by Roger Deakins too). It might be lacking in traditional star power, as it has relative newcomer Jack O'Connell in the lead, with Domhnall Gleeson, Garret Hedlund and Jai Courtney among the supporting cast. And while Jolie's first film "In The Land Of Blood And Honey" failed to get much traction. But that film was tougher (and in a foreign language), whereas this seems tailor-made for awards success as long as it's even halfway decent.

 Read the rest at The Playlist



awardscircuit

Awards Profile: Unbroken


Why it Could Succeed: One of the biggest female movie stars in the world, Angelina Jolie can disappear from the movie scene for a long period of time and come back with as much salivating support from fans as when she left. I’d even venture to guess that Jolie’s grand return to film will be one of the biggest selling points of Unbroken, despite not starring in it. You see, folks, for only the second time in her career, Jolie is taking off the makeup and strapping on her work boots — she’ll be directing this passion project of hers with the assistance of an extremely laudable group of screenwriters (Coens, anyone?), a cast filled with some of the most promising up-and-comers, and a cinematographer of legendary proportions, Mr. Roger “Oscar-less” Deakins.

Unlike the War in Iraq/Afghanistan, WWII seems to dominate the box office like no other period of worldly conflict, so it shouldn’t be too difficult for Jolie’s film to find success, especially given the fact that distributing studio Universal has had a consistent outpour of hits since 2012′s Les Misérables. Their hot streak is nowhere near over. Jolie’s close ties to the subject at the center of this WWII drama, POW survivor and former Olympic athlete Louis Zamperini (who is still alive at age 97!), adds an emotional reinforcement to the film that will no doubt play a major part in the upcoming awards campaign. Given her dedication to getting this incredible hero’s story just right, you can pretty much assume Jolie will go for both the jugular and heart in equal measure. In other words, you better run to Costco and start loading up on Kleenex before it’s too late.

It also doesn’t hurt matters that Unbroken is adapted from a biography written by non-fiction author Laura Hillenbrand, who if you remember penned Seabiscuit, the book that was adapted into an Oscar-nominated movie which competed for the “Best Picture” prize in 2004. HIllenbrand’s work is no stranger to the Academy Awards, so don’t be surprised if her second novel also becomes an Oscar fixation. All these ingredients that make up Unbroken, who’ve individually gone over well with AMPAS in the past, are bound to swoon voters once more. Also, don’t for a second think Angelina Jolie’s Honorary Oscar is going to stop the Academy from heaping more accolades on this very deserving thespian/humanitarian.
....

Awards Speculation: It’s no doubt crossed people’s minds that if Angelina Jolie were to win Best Director and Best Picture for Unbroken, she’d be the second female ever to do so…and once again with a war film. There’s a bittersweet feeling that emerges upon this realization. On the one hand, I would love to see Jolie win if her work was stellar and fully deserving of cinema’s highest prize. On the other, it doesn’t for one minute escape the sad realization that this would be the second time a woman wins “Best Picture” for a film belonging to a male-centric genre, with male characters leading the narrative charge (see: Kathryn Bigalow’s The Hurt Locker). For the record, I in no way disapprove of the direction Jolie took on her second directorial effort, but I do believe that working in a genre beloved by the old, white male majority that dominates AMPAS’ current membership is extremely advantageous. If Jolie, let’s say, were to direct a romantic comedy or female-driven drama, her stepping stones to the Oscar ceremony would be wider apart than they currently are with Unbroken.

Let’s be clear: Kathryn Bigalow’s historical win in 2010 for The Hurt Locker increases the chance that Jolie will have the same level of success on Oscar Sunday, 2015. The Coen Bros., recently snubbed for their work on Inside Llewyn Davis, will likely be given the “Oops…we’re sorry!” treatment for their Unbroken screenplay, and many are already claiming 2015 as the year that Roger Deakins will finally win his first Oscar. There’s too many awards baity factors in this project to simply shrug off, and if it’s as viscerally and emotionally captivating as we’re being led to believe, Unbroken could very well be next recipient of the “Best Picture” prize. Furthermore, loud, action-heavy war films — especially if they’re on Oscar’s radar — do pretty well in below-the-line categories.

The biggest question mark will be for the acting nods, since we all know that without a SAG nomination, your “Best Picture” prospects are pretty much dead in the water. Jack O’Connell could easily deliver one of the many “great breakthrough performances by a young male performer under 25″ that ends up not being recognized by the Academy. Yet, these Hurt Locker comparisons are eating away at me and I can’t help but feel O’Connell could pull a Jeremy Renner and find himself in the “Best Actor” lineup. Winning? Now that’s crazy talk at this point in time. If AMPAS wants to show it appreciates Asian performances more than history states it does (little to none, by the way), perhaps Japanese rock singer-turned-actor Miyavi might be a “Supporting Actor” contender for his work as the abusive Sergeant Mutsuhiro “The Bird” Watanabe, who ran the interment camp Zamperini was imprisoned in. Also, let’s not forget Garrett Hedlund in that same category, who’s been subtly and slowly rising through the ranks among the current crop of “great” next-gen actors. All in all, I’d say the incomparable Angelina Jolie has quite the Oscar contender on her hands if we’re simply looking at current face value. Let’s hope the final product is the worth the pre-season buzz.

Oscar Potential:
Best Picture
Best Director — Angelina Jolie
Best Actor — Jack O’Connell
Best Supporting Actor — Miyavi, Garrett Hedlund, Jai Courtney, Domhnall Gleeson
Best Adapted Screenplay — The Coens, Richard LaGravenese, and William Nicholson
Best Film Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Original Score
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Hairstyling and Makeup
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing







 Collider







Oscar Beat: 10 Films That Could End Up in the 2015 Awards Race

by     Posted 10 minutes ago





unbroken-jack-oconnell-slice
UNBROKEN
Release Date: December 25th
Possible Nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography
True story?  Check.  Based on an inspiring, beloved book?  Check.  Well-respected director?  Check.  Oscar-winning screenwriters?  Check.  Unbroken has the makings of one of the biggest Oscar contenders of the year, and for good reason.  Plenty of filmmakers were vying for the opportunity to tell the true story of Olympian Louis Zamperini, who survived a plane crash in WWII only to find himself in a Japanese POW camp, but it was Angelina Jolie who landed the job.  She nabbed Joel and Ethan Coen to rewrite the screenplay and enlisted probably the best cinematographer working today, Roger Deakins, to shoot the picture, so it’s with very high expectations that we await the release of Unbroken.  The film’s Olympics-themed first trailer was incredibly promising and Zamperini’s story is one of heartbreak and triumph, so this one has the makings of a potential Oscar juggernaut.




theatlantic

The Oscars in 2015: Very, Very Early Predictions for Next Year's Awards

It's never too early to semi-blindly predict the rest of the year's critical darlings.

Unbroken
Release Date: December 25
The buzz on Unbroken is already deafening, and surprisingly, the words “Angelina Jolie” only play a small role in generating it. Jolie is directing the flick, the real-life story of Italian-American Olympian Louis Zamperini, who became a prisoner of war during World War II. The script is based on the acclaimed book by Laura Hillenbrand. Oh yeah, and it was written by the Coen Brothers. Combine the Coens' record of brilliance with the surprisingly refined directing chops Jolie showed off with 2011’s In the Land of Blood and Honey, and Unbroken could be a major contender in multiple categories.

Read the rest at theatlantic




awardsdaily

Most Anticipated of 2014, or What We Talk About when we Talk About Oscar Predictions

Posted On 08 Mar 2014


Top Tier
 Fury (November 14) – starring Brad Pitt, written and directed by David Ayer, “A crew of Americans in Nazi Germany toward the end of World War II embark on a brave mission.”

Second Tier Wild Cards
Unbroken (December 25) – directed by Angelina Jolie, lensed by Roger Deakins, co-written by the Coen brothers.  It’s going to have to really suck to not figure in somewhere.

Other Projects of Note
Maleficent (May 30) – Angelina Jolie as the iconic villain

Read the rest at awardsdaily

Wednesday, March 5, 2014







hitfix

On Telluride's newfound place in the season, and a modest glimpse ahead

Will we be talking about 'Unbroken,' 'Inherent Vice' and 'Foxcatcher' next season?


The dust has settled. I've had an opportunity to go back and look at the Oscars telecast away from a work setting (let's finally leave poor John Travolta alone). The 86th annual Academy Awards are a memory, and today, Best Picture winner "12 Years a Slave" is available on DVD and Blu-ray (nice timing, folks). It was a wild ride, an unpredictable one, and one that started in the mountains of Colorado.
I was talking recently with someone about how the groundwork for phase two of a given awards season — that period of time when ballots are in hand and winners are being decided — is really laid in phase one, if not earlier. By the time you get to phase two, more or less, everyone knows what they're voting for. It almost becomes a formality.
Plenty of it has to do with the movies, of course. Studios like Paramount — which does a great job of landing nominations, often against significant odds, yet has had a tough time picking up picture, director, actor or actress wins as of late — are only at the whim of the potential for movies like "The Wolf of Wall Street" and "Nebraska" to push past the other highlights of the year. And in the case of those two movies, by the way, the former didn't arrive until December while the latter stumbled out of the gate at Cannes before eventually gaining its composure.
Basically, putting your best foot forward early seems to be the secret. And the Telluride Film Festival has become a great launching pad for awards season success, largely because of the press boom it has received in the last five years. Prior to that, it was a nice, tucked-away secret without much of a media platform, but in the wake of "Slumdog Millionaire," "The King's Speech," "Argo" and now "12 Years a Slave," all of which launched at Telluride before winning Best Picture (and add to that "The Artist," which kept its festival stride going there out of Cannes), it's clear there's something about kicking off your season in the Rockies, and I think it has something to do with setting a tone.
By the time Toronto rolls around, with its media-heavy environment and tons of press and interviews being banked for fall releases, a certain tune has been struck. And that's not to take anything away from Toronto, which plays a heavy hand in this, too, but certainly after September, everyone is sort of playing to whatever that tune may already be. A wave of consistency has set in, and it has a lot to do with the big burst of Telluride media exposure netted for the few films that are able to play on that slate. When the press wasn't as attuned to the festival, the Oscar successes out of it were more modest. But something has clearly changed, and the only operative, noticeable thing, as far as I can tell, is the spike in coverage.
Of course, that comes with a caveat. Proclamations like "this film WILL WIN BEST PICTURE," even if they (barely) pan out, remain asinine. And you'll continue to get journalists there looking to make a name, clamoring for attention, attempting to anoint and paint bull's-eyes on films' backs. But it can be helpful, too, particularly for films that aren't such obvious players primed and ready for the awards circuit as it is.
Tickets for the 2014 Telluride Film Festival go on sale this week, and I can only imagine that a year after the fest's 40th anniversary drove record sales and attendance, it will be even more on fire after its impact, perceived or otherwise, on this season. I also imagine a number of studios and filmmakers will be desperate for a big reveal on that stage.
Warner Bros., after "Argo" and "Gravity," has obviously done well there. This year they have the Scott Rudin/Paul Thomas Anderson production "Inherent Vice." "The Master" was a possibility a few years ago but didn't end up on the slate (the reasoning varying depending on who you talk to). So that would be at the top of my list of guesses.
Noah Baumbach launched "Frances Ha" at Telluride and has another Greta Gerwig collaboration on the way. That could show up. Depending on how long Sony Classics wants to hold it, a possibility last year, Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher," could show up. Or Alejandro González Iñárritu's "Birdman." Or films by any number of auteurs, from Todd Haynes to Terence Malick.
(Of course, Toronto has put its foot down about studios going to Telluride, disallowing an opening weekend gala if they do so. I don't imagine that will make anyone flinch, however, as it's really win/win, pushing some of the bigger titles to the back end of Toronto rather than making it a front-loaded mess.)
This isn't a Telluride guessing game column, though, so much as a segue to looking ahead. We abandoned year-in-advance Oscar predictions long ago, and God bless those who still bother (we'll hold off until post-Cannes, when there is actual paint on the canvas). But just to casually glance at the upcoming awards season, it's obvious that Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" could be a major player, and you can bet Universal Pictures will be eager to get back into the game after a bit of a dry spell. We took care of Emmanuel Lubezki's Oscar this year. Could Roger Deakins finally be on deck with this film?
I imagine Mike Leigh's J.M.W. Turner biopic "Mr. Turner" will be a fixture, and who knows how well films that straddle prestige and populist lines like David Fincher's "Gone Girl" and Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar" will fare? We've already seen movies like "Boyhood" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" launch at Sundance and Berlin respectively and make a case for being remembered by year's end, and I'm sure I'll be pulling for folks like Jeff Nichols ("Midnight Special"), Jon Stewart ("Rosewater") and more, in addition to the Telluride guesses above.
It promises to be an interesting season, but if it's half as compelling as the one we just wrapped up, then it will be a special one indeed.
So until the craziness begins anew, read my final thoughts on the 2013-2014 Oscar season here, take in Guy's take here, get a load of Gerard's final crafts category analysis here and listen to the swan song edition of Oscar Talk here. Greg will be back soon enough with a list of lessons learned this season, but I know the one I learned: TAKE A VACATION. So I'll try to find some time for that shortly.
Thanks, as always, for reading and engaging. We appreciate you.
Read the full post at






movies.yahoo

14 Oscar Contenders to Watch for in 2014


Thelma Adams
Yahoo Movies


Now that the Academy is done honoring 2013's best, it's the perfect time to get started on looking at which of this year's films will be contenders at the 2015 Oscars.
Keep an eye out for these buzzy 2014 releases so you don't have to play catch-up come nomination time next winter.

12. "Unbroken"Release Date: Dec. 25
The Early Buzz: Angelina Jolie ("In the Land of Blood and Honey") makes her sophomore directorial effort with this fact-based period drama about Olympic runner Louis Zamperini (Jack O'Connell), who was taken prisoner by the Japanese during WWII. The pedigree continues with a screenplay by Joel and Ethan Coen based on Laura Hillenbrand's international bestseller.

8. "Fury"Release Date: Nov. 14
The Early Buzz: Brad Pitt, Logan Lerman, and the no-longer-famous Shia LaBeouf star in an old-fashioned WWII war drama about an ultra-dangerous mission behind Nazi lines with a Sherman tank, written and directed by David Ayer ("End of Watch," "Training Day"). The film made some headlines in November, but for undesirable reasons: Its loud production on Remembrance Day angered British locals.

Read the rest at movies.yahoo





Monday, March 3, 2014









Angelina Jolie showed up at the Academy Awards on Sunday night on the arm of partner Brad Pitt, who ended up winning an Oscar as one of the producers of "12 Years a Slave."
Don't be surprised if you see Jolie at the Dolby again next year, this time with Pitt applauding from the audience as Jolie wins the Oscar for directing "Unbroken," a survival tale depicting the life of World War II hero and former Olympic distance runner Louis Zamperini.
Too soon? Definitely. But after spending the past six months writing about "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity," can you blame us for wanting to take just a peek at the movies that will likely by vying for next year's awards?

Read the rest at LATimes













Monday, December 31, 2012

Oscars


From TOH

Oscar Predictions 2013 UPDATE

Awards by Anne Thompson
December 31, 2012 2:37 AM

As 5700 Academy members file their ballots by the early nominations deadline of January 3, on the must-see list and sure to gain multiple nominations in the most competitive Oscar race in years are popular hits "Lincoln," which has dominated every awards sector to date and led the Golden Globes pack with seven nominations, "Argo" and "Life of Pi," which are leading the Oscar pack, followed by festival hit "Silver Linings Playbook," which has yet to expand nationally, and controversial late-breaker "Zero Dark Thirty," which is also waiting for nominations before going wide. Both western "Django Unchained" and musical "Les Miserables," which exploded at the Christmas box office, are also expected to deliver multiple nominations. (Each category is listed in alphabetical order.)

'Argo' Warner Bros.
 
Year-end critics votes confer credibility and point attention at must-see films, but the Academy goes their own way. Both the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review anointed "Zero Dark Thirty" their best picture and Kathryn Bigelow best director, while Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln" nabbed best actor from the NYFCC for Daniel Day-Lewis, screenwriter Tony Kushner, and supporting actress Sally Field--and the SAG and Golden Globes nominations in December. The Globes confer winning momentum on their nominees heading into the Oscar corridor. Those who are omitted don't get the extra push. The Globes do not reflect any more than the critics groups what Academy members are thinking.

"Beasts of the Southern Wild," shut out by SAG and the Globes, is looking like a long shot for the Oscars. Coming up on the outside are "Amour," "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "Moonrise Kingdom," "Skyfall," and "The Master."

TWC's "Django Unchained," "Quartet," and "The Master" all scored better with the HFPA than with SAG--the Weinsteins landed 15 Globe nominations over six films. Even as a comedy contender here, "Silver Linings Playbook" remains the Weinstein's strongest Oscar candidate--but Russell did not land a best director Globe nod. "Django Unchained"'s five Globe nominations gave a much-needed boost for the film, which was neglected by critics groups and shut out by SAG (which may be partly a deadline issue--the movie hit the awards circuit late and screeners weren't ready).
Truth is, the SAG vote is more reflective of where the all-important actors are in this race than the HFPA. Is SAG and Globe nominee Nicole Kidman really a player for her gutsy no-holds-barred performance in "The Paperboy"? The Academy actors could go there, but the movie, with a Metacritic score of 45, isn't a strong contender.

But the actors in the Academy could well push "Les Miserables," the follow-up from Oscar-winner "The King's Speech" filmmaker Tom Hooper, over the top. It is not insignificant that the first screenings over Thanksgiving weekend for the just-completed "Les Mis" and "Thirty" were for SAG actors, who responded well to both. "Hurt Locker" follow-up "Zero Dark Thirty" is an effective and dramatic recreation of the CIA investigation that led to Osama Bin Laden's demise and NBR-winner Jessica Chastain is now giving "Silver Linings Playbook" star Jennifer Lawrence some competition in the best actress race.


Hooper's ruthless tearjerker is showing wide appeal beyond heater junkies and musical fans, and will easily outgross Tim Burton and Stephen Sondheim's darkly dramatic "Sweeney Todd" ($52 million domestic, $100 million foreign) and head in the direction of accessibly entertaining Abba-fest "Mamma Mia!" with Meryl Streep and "Les Mis" star Amanda Seyfried ($144 million domestic, $458 million foreign). Hugh Jackman's emotionaly powerful performance as a factor in the best actor race should also fuel ticket buyers.

The eventual nominees will be fueled by a magic mix of expert marketing and publicity plus audience, critic, and guild response leading to ultimate Academy votes. Contenders "Lincoln," "Life of Pi," "Argo" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are holding strong aganist the year-end competition, while fall entry "The Master," with more critical than popular acclaim behind it, was ignored by the NYFCC and NBR and saved by the Los Angeles Film Critics from sliding into oblivion. The AFI Awards left "The Master" off their ten best list but included "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Moonrise Kingdom," which have better shots at Indie Spirit wins than Oscars. "Skyfall," "The Dark Knight Rises," "The Hobbit," and "Anna Karenina" have strength with the craft branches. And "The Sessions" will build its strength via SAG and the dominant Academy actors' branch.

"The Sessions" is a magnificent film that deserves to be nominated for writing, directing, acting and picture. But this modest-scale drama is losing ground against bigger competitors like "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Les Mis" outside of actor (where John Hawkes must contend with the towering Day-Lewis and Jackman) and supporting actress (where Helen Hunt now faces serious rival Anne Hathaway).

Lionsgate/Summit's impeccably-made Spanish true story "The Impossible" is another actor play--Naomi Watts is extraordinary as a mother fighting for survival for the sake of her son. But "The Impossible"'s superb special effects were shut out of the VFX contest; it couldn't compete against such Hollywood big-budget epics as "Life of Pi" and "The Dark Knight Rises."

I never considered The Weinstein Co.'s "The Master" to be a best picture contender. I have heard too many Academy members downplay its achievements--and admire the acting. So, again, LAFCA winners Joaquin Phoenix and supporting actress Amy Adams are in the race, and Globe nominee Philip Seymour Hoffman should wind up with a supporting nom.

Michael Haneke's "Amour" is on an early roll, winning the Palme d'Or, best foreign from the NFCC and NBR and Best Film from the LAFCA as well as a Globe foreign film nom. The heart-breaking drama boasts two beloved actor contenders bound to win sympathy from Academy seniors, Emmanuelle Riva, who shared the LAFCA best actress prize with Jennifer Lawrence, and Jean-Louis Trintignant. Haneke's last film, "White Ribbon," was nominated for foreign as well as cinematography. He could earn a directing or more likely an original writing slot. This movie will reach into Academy voters' hearts and 85-year-old Riva, who starred in "Hiroshima Mon Amour," a movie that many Academy voters remember, may get a nomination (which would make her the oldest best actress or actor nominee ever; "Cocoon"'s Jessica Tandy was 80).

As usual, the actress field is weak and wide open. The list of actress suspects is all over the place: anything can happen. Chastain leads the fray; Rachel Weisz entered the race via the New York Film Critics for her intense performance as a woman desperately in love with the wrong man (Tom Hiddleston) in "The Deep Blue Sea," but didn't land noms from SAG or the Globes, so the film may not wind up being widely viewed.


"La Vie en Rose" Oscar-winner Marion Cotillard is looking strong, with SAG and Globe noms, for her performance in Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone." But is there room for two great French actresses in the best actress top five? Sony Pictures Classics is pushing both Cotillard and "Amour" star Riva as Best Actress. While it was overlooked at Cannes, "Rust and Bone" is admired by many who've seen it and earned a Globe foreign nom.  But it's a challenging film that may put off some viewers.

Small-scale family dramedy "Silver Linings Playbook," which is slowly building steam at the box office, should make it to best picture. LAFCA co-winner and "Winter's Bone" nominee Lawrence is a slam dunk for an actor nom, as is her co-star Bradley Cooper; just about everyone falls for them in this romantic drama from "The Fighter"'s Russell, who may have to settle for a writing nod (he won the NBR for his adapted screenplay and was runner-up at LAFCA) if he doesn't land in the director top five (he and Hooper missed the Globe list). Robert De Niro should also land in supporting.

Full Oscar predictions are below.

'Zero Dark Thirty'

 
Best Picture
Frontrunners
  • "Argo"
  • "Les Miserables"
  • "Life of Pi"
  • "Lincoln"
  • "The Silver Linings Playbook"
  • "Zero Dark Thirty"
Contenders
  • "Amour"
  • "Django Unchained"
  • "Moonrise Kingdom"
Long Shots
  • "Anna Karenina"
  • "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
  • "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Actor in a Leading Role
Frontrunners
  • Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
  • John Hawkes "The Sessions"
  • Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
  • Denzel Washington "Flight"
Contender
  • Joaquin Phoenix "The Master"
Long Shots
  • Richard Gere "Arbitrage"
  • Jean-Louis Trintignant "Amour"
Actor in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners
  • Alan Arkin "Argo"
  • Javier Bardem "Skyfall"
  • Robert De Niro "The Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
Contenders
  • Leonardo DiCaprio "Django Unchained
  • Samuel L.Jackson "Django Unchained"
  • Matthew McConaughey "Magic Mike"
  • Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"
Long Shots
  • Jason Clarke "Zero Dark Thirty"
  • Jude Law "Anna Karenina"
  • Eddie Redmayne "Les Miserables"
Actress in a Leading Role
Frontrunners
  • Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
  • Marion Cotillard "Rust & Bone"
  • Jennifer Lawrence "The Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"
  • Naomi Watts "The Impossible"
Contenders
  • Helen Mirren "Hitchcock"
  • Quvenzhane Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
  • Rachel Weisz "The Deep Blue Sea"
Long Shots
  • Judi Dench "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
  • Keira Knightley "Anna Karenina"
  • Maggie Smith "Quartet"
Actress in a Supporting Role
Frontrunners
  • Amy Adams "The Master"
  • Sally Field "Lincoln"
  • Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
  • Helen Hunt "The Sessions"
  • Maggie Smith "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Contenders
  • Judi Dench "Skyfall"
  • Nicole Kidman "The Paperboy"
Long Shots
  • Samantha Barks "Les Miserables"
  • Ann Dowd "Compliance"
  • Jackie Weaver "Silver Linings Playbook"
Directing
Frontrunners
  • Ben Affleck "Argo"
  • Kathryn Bigelow "Zero Dark Thirty"
  • Tom Hooper "Les Miserables"
  • Ang Lee "Life of Pi"
  • Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"
Contenders
  • Michael Haneke "Amour"
  • David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Frontrunners:
  • Tony Kushner, John Logan & Paul Webb "Lincoln"
  • David Magee "Life of Pi"
  • William Nicholson "Les Miserables"
  • David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
  • Chris Terrio "Argo"
Contenders
  • Judd Apatow "This is 40"
  • Ben Lewin "The Sessions"
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Frontrunners
  • Paul Thomas Anderson "The Master"
  • Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola "Moonrise Kingdom"
  • Mark Boal "Zero Dark Thirty"
  • Michael Haneke "Amour"
  • Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Read the rest at TOH



From TOH

Academy Extends Voting Period Amid Balloting Snafus

by Anne Thompson
December 31, 2012 5:36 PM

Even while it was officially closed for the holiday until January 2, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, recognizing the continuing problems many of its members have been having with the new online voting procedures, has extended the deadline for members to vote for Oscar nominations by one day to Friday, January 4, 2013, 5.p.m. PT.  (The original date was Thursday, January 3, 5 p.m. PT). Voters were having trouble with not only hacker-prevention log-ins and passwords, but a non-intuitive online ballot and browser issues with Safari. The Academy's 24-hour help hotline was overwhelmed, with lengthy delays. The average age of Academy's 5700 voting members is 58.
Here's part of the official release:
Members may vote online or submit a paper ballot.  Any votes received after the deadline will not be counted.

“By extending the voting deadline we are providing every opportunity available to make the transition to online balloting as smooth as possible,” said Ric Robertson, Academy COO.  “We’re grateful to our global membership for joining us in this process.”

In order to accommodate the extension and maintain security, the online voting system will be closed for two hours only (5:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. PT) on Thursday, January 3. The system will re-open at 7 p.m. PT on January 3 and remain available to members until 5:00 p.m. PT January 4.

This is the first year the Academy is providing its membership the opportunity to vote online. Several voting resources are available to members, including assisted voting stations in Los Angeles, New York and London, and a 24-hour support call center.

The nominations and final Awards ballots will be tabulated and verified by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to ensure that all aspects of the balloting process are accurate and secure. In the majority of the categories, PwC will tabulate the ballots using the preferential voting system.

The 85th Academy Awards® nominations will be announced live on Thursday, January 10, 2013, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy's Samuel Goldwyn Theater.

Academy Awards for outstanding film achievements of 2012 will be presented on Oscar Sunday, February 24, 2013.



From NYTimes
 

A Documentary Maker Puts Money on an Oscar Ad


Steven C. Barber is the director of “Until They Are Home.” 
Matthew Hausle Steven C. Barber is the director of “Until They Are Home.”
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Steven C. Barber, filmmaker, was looking at a used Lexus to replace his 2001 Chevy when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences released its lists of Oscar-eligible scores and songs this month. The music from his documentary, “Until They Are Home,” made both.

So who needs a Lexus? Mr. Barber, who operates from a rent-controlled apartment here, bought a full-page “for your consideration” ad in Variety instead.

The ad, said Mr. Barber, who spoke by telephone last week, cost him a little less than its standard price of $13,500. As with almost everything related to his movies, he haggled — but at least he didn’t ask Variety for a contribution.

“I ask everyone for money,” said Mr. Barber, who describes himself as a salesman by nature. In fact, he makes a living by selling advertising when he isn’t pursuing his passion for documentary films, and especially those about repatriating the remains of American military personnel who died abroad.
“Until They Are Home” is a sequel to Mr. Barber’s 2009 film “Return to Tarawa: The Leon Cooper Story.” Both films examine the battle for Tarawa, an atoll where in 1943 more than 5,000 Americans and Japanese died, most on the island of Betio, which is smaller than Central Park.

The new movie is about a United States military mission — inspired by the first film — to reclaim the bodies left behind. T. Boone Pickens and Ted Leonsis, said Mr. Barber, are among the wealthy supporters who contributed to the film’s roughly $300,000 budget.

The country singer Clint Black contributed a song, “She Won’t Let Go.” The composer Jamie Dunlap, known for his work on “South Park,” was paid for a score. And Mr. Barber got them qualified for Oscar consideration by doing what most ambitious documentarians do — spending still more money.

For starters, it cost about $18,000, he said, to have the movie shown for a week in one theater each in New York and in Los Angeles, with accompanying ads in The Village Voice and The Los Angeles Times.

Conversion of the film to a specified digital format, another Oscar requirement, cost an additional $3,000. It took about $400 more to make some 200 DVDs for distribution to documentary branch members, who did not put the film on their short list of 15 contenders.

But Mr. Barber hedged his bets by filling out some extra paperwork for the group’s music branch. Hence, Mr. Black’s song became one of 75 that are being considered for nominations, while Mr. Dunlap became one of 104 official contenders in the best score category.

If they are nominated, Mr. Barber is confident he can raise more money, to be used for a film about repatriating remains from the Philippines. As for the Variety ad, he figured, it was worth a used Lexus.

“I’ve got to roll the dice,” he said, “and make it look like I’m bigger than I am.”
A version of this article appeared in print on 12/31/2012, on page B4 of the NewYork edition with the headline: A Documentary Maker Puts Money on an Oscar Ad.