From TOH
Oscar Predictions 2013 UPDATE
Awards byDecember 31, 2012 2:37 AM
As 5700 Academy members file their ballots by the early nominations deadline of January 3, on the must-see list and sure to gain multiple nominations in the most competitive Oscar race in years are popular hits "Lincoln," which has dominated every awards sector to date and led the Golden Globes pack with seven nominations, "Argo" and "Life of Pi," which are leading the Oscar pack, followed by festival hit "Silver Linings Playbook," which has yet to expand nationally, and controversial late-breaker "Zero Dark Thirty," which is also waiting for nominations before going wide. Both western "Django Unchained" and musical "Les Miserables," which exploded at the Christmas box office, are also expected to deliver multiple nominations. (Each category is listed in alphabetical order.)
'Argo'
Warner Bros.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild," shut out by SAG and the Globes, is looking like a long shot for the Oscars. Coming up on the outside are "Amour," "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "Moonrise Kingdom," "Skyfall," and "The Master."
TWC's "Django Unchained," "Quartet," and "The Master" all scored better with the HFPA than with SAG--the Weinsteins landed 15 Globe nominations over six films. Even as a comedy contender here, "Silver Linings Playbook" remains the Weinstein's strongest Oscar candidate--but Russell did not land a best director Globe nod. "Django Unchained"'s five Globe nominations gave a much-needed boost for the film, which was neglected by critics groups and shut out by SAG (which may be partly a deadline issue--the movie hit the awards circuit late and screeners weren't ready).
Truth is, the SAG vote is more reflective of where the all-important actors are in this race than the HFPA. Is SAG and Globe nominee Nicole Kidman really a player for her gutsy no-holds-barred performance in "The Paperboy"? The Academy actors could go there, but the movie, with a Metacritic score of 45, isn't a strong contender.
But the actors in the Academy could well push "Les Miserables," the follow-up from Oscar-winner "The King's Speech" filmmaker Tom Hooper, over the top. It is not insignificant that the first screenings over Thanksgiving weekend for the just-completed "Les Mis" and "Thirty" were for SAG actors, who responded well to both. "Hurt Locker" follow-up "Zero Dark Thirty" is an effective and dramatic recreation of the CIA investigation that led to Osama Bin Laden's demise and NBR-winner Jessica Chastain is now giving "Silver Linings Playbook" star Jennifer Lawrence some competition in the best actress race.
Hooper's ruthless tearjerker is showing wide appeal beyond heater junkies and musical fans, and will easily outgross Tim Burton and Stephen Sondheim's darkly dramatic "Sweeney Todd" ($52 million domestic, $100 million foreign) and head in the direction of accessibly entertaining Abba-fest "Mamma Mia!" with Meryl Streep and "Les Mis" star Amanda Seyfried ($144 million domestic, $458 million foreign). Hugh Jackman's emotionaly powerful performance as a factor in the best actor race should also fuel ticket buyers.
The eventual nominees will be fueled by a magic mix of expert marketing and publicity plus audience, critic, and guild response leading to ultimate Academy votes. Contenders "Lincoln," "Life of Pi," "Argo" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are holding strong aganist the year-end competition, while fall entry "The Master," with more critical than popular acclaim behind it, was ignored by the NYFCC and NBR and saved by the Los Angeles Film Critics from sliding into oblivion. The AFI Awards left "The Master" off their ten best list but included "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Moonrise Kingdom," which have better shots at Indie Spirit wins than Oscars. "Skyfall," "The Dark Knight Rises," "The Hobbit," and "Anna Karenina" have strength with the craft branches. And "The Sessions" will build its strength via SAG and the dominant Academy actors' branch.
"The Sessions" is a magnificent film that deserves to be nominated for writing, directing, acting and picture. But this modest-scale drama is losing ground against bigger competitors like "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Les Mis" outside of actor (where John Hawkes must contend with the towering Day-Lewis and Jackman) and supporting actress (where Helen Hunt now faces serious rival Anne Hathaway).
Lionsgate/Summit's impeccably-made Spanish true story "The Impossible" is another actor play--Naomi Watts is extraordinary as a mother fighting for survival for the sake of her son. But "The Impossible"'s superb special effects were shut out of the VFX contest; it couldn't compete against such Hollywood big-budget epics as "Life of Pi" and "The Dark Knight Rises."
I never considered The Weinstein Co.'s "The Master" to be a best picture contender. I have heard too many Academy members downplay its achievements--and admire the acting. So, again, LAFCA winners Joaquin Phoenix and supporting actress Amy Adams are in the race, and Globe nominee Philip Seymour Hoffman should wind up with a supporting nom.
Michael Haneke's "Amour" is on an early roll, winning the Palme d'Or, best foreign from the NFCC and NBR and Best Film from the LAFCA as well as a Globe foreign film nom. The heart-breaking drama boasts two beloved actor contenders bound to win sympathy from Academy seniors, Emmanuelle Riva, who shared the LAFCA best actress prize with Jennifer Lawrence, and Jean-Louis Trintignant. Haneke's last film, "White Ribbon," was nominated for foreign as well as cinematography. He could earn a directing or more likely an original writing slot. This movie will reach into Academy voters' hearts and 85-year-old Riva, who starred in "Hiroshima Mon Amour," a movie that many Academy voters remember, may get a nomination (which would make her the oldest best actress or actor nominee ever; "Cocoon"'s Jessica Tandy was 80).
As usual, the actress field is weak and wide open. The list of actress suspects is all over the place: anything can happen. Chastain leads the fray; Rachel Weisz entered the race via the New York Film Critics for her intense performance as a woman desperately in love with the wrong man (Tom Hiddleston) in "The Deep Blue Sea," but didn't land noms from SAG or the Globes, so the film may not wind up being widely viewed.
"La Vie en Rose" Oscar-winner Marion Cotillard is looking strong, with SAG and Globe noms, for her performance in Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone." But is there room for two great French actresses in the best actress top five? Sony Pictures Classics is pushing both Cotillard and "Amour" star Riva as Best Actress. While it was overlooked at Cannes, "Rust and Bone" is admired by many who've seen it and earned a Globe foreign nom. But it's a challenging film that may put off some viewers.
Small-scale family dramedy "Silver Linings Playbook," which is slowly building steam at the box office, should make it to best picture. LAFCA co-winner and "Winter's Bone" nominee Lawrence is a slam dunk for an actor nom, as is her co-star Bradley Cooper; just about everyone falls for them in this romantic drama from "The Fighter"'s Russell, who may have to settle for a writing nod (he won the NBR for his adapted screenplay and was runner-up at LAFCA) if he doesn't land in the director top five (he and Hooper missed the Globe list). Robert De Niro should also land in supporting.
Full Oscar predictions are below.
'Zero Dark Thirty'
Frontrunners
- "Argo"
- "Les Miserables"
- "Life of Pi"
- "Lincoln"
- "The Silver Linings Playbook"
- "Zero Dark Thirty"
- "Amour"
- "Django Unchained"
- "Moonrise Kingdom"
- "Anna Karenina"
- "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
- "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Frontrunners
- Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
- Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
- John Hawkes "The Sessions"
- Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
- Denzel Washington "Flight"
- Joaquin Phoenix "The Master"
- Richard Gere "Arbitrage"
- Jean-Louis Trintignant "Amour"
Frontrunners
- Alan Arkin "Argo"
- Javier Bardem "Skyfall"
- Robert De Niro "The Silver Linings Playbook"
- Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
- Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
- Leonardo DiCaprio "Django Unchained
- Samuel L.Jackson "Django Unchained"
- Matthew McConaughey "Magic Mike"
- Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"
- Jason Clarke "Zero Dark Thirty"
- Jude Law "Anna Karenina"
- Eddie Redmayne "Les Miserables"
Frontrunners
- Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
- Marion Cotillard "Rust & Bone"
- Jennifer Lawrence "The Silver Linings Playbook"
- Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"
- Naomi Watts "The Impossible"
- Helen Mirren "Hitchcock"
- Quvenzhane Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
- Rachel Weisz "The Deep Blue Sea"
- Judi Dench "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
- Keira Knightley "Anna Karenina"
- Maggie Smith "Quartet"
Frontrunners
- Amy Adams "The Master"
- Sally Field "Lincoln"
- Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
- Helen Hunt "The Sessions"
- Maggie Smith "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
- Judi Dench "Skyfall"
- Nicole Kidman "The Paperboy"
- Samantha Barks "Les Miserables"
- Ann Dowd "Compliance"
- Jackie Weaver "Silver Linings Playbook"
Frontrunners
- Ben Affleck "Argo"
- Kathryn Bigelow "Zero Dark Thirty"
- Tom Hooper "Les Miserables"
- Ang Lee "Life of Pi"
- Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"
- Michael Haneke "Amour"
- David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
- Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Frontrunners:
- Tony Kushner, John Logan & Paul Webb "Lincoln"
- David Magee "Life of Pi"
- William Nicholson "Les Miserables"
- David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
- Chris Terrio "Argo"
- Judd Apatow "This is 40"
- Ben Lewin "The Sessions"
Frontrunners
- Paul Thomas Anderson "The Master"
- Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola "Moonrise Kingdom"
- Mark Boal "Zero Dark Thirty"
- Michael Haneke "Amour"
- Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
From TOH
Academy Extends Voting Period Amid Balloting Snafus
byDecember 31, 2012 5:36 PM
Even while it was officially closed for the holiday until January 2, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, recognizing the continuing problems many of its members have been having with the new online voting procedures, has extended the deadline for members to vote for Oscar nominations by one day to Friday, January 4, 2013, 5.p.m. PT. (The original date was Thursday, January 3, 5 p.m. PT). Voters were having trouble with not only hacker-prevention log-ins and passwords, but a non-intuitive online ballot and browser issues with Safari. The Academy's 24-hour help hotline was overwhelmed, with lengthy delays. The average age of Academy's 5700 voting members is 58.
Here's part of the official release:
Members may vote online or submit a paper ballot. Any votes received after the deadline will not be counted.
“By extending the voting deadline we are providing every opportunity available to make the transition to online balloting as smooth as possible,” said Ric Robertson, Academy COO. “We’re grateful to our global membership for joining us in this process.”
In order to accommodate the extension and maintain security, the online voting system will be closed for two hours only (5:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. PT) on Thursday, January 3. The system will re-open at 7 p.m. PT on January 3 and remain available to members until 5:00 p.m. PT January 4.
This is the first year the Academy is providing its membership the opportunity to vote online. Several voting resources are available to members, including assisted voting stations in Los Angeles, New York and London, and a 24-hour support call center.
The nominations and final Awards ballots will be tabulated and verified by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to ensure that all aspects of the balloting process are accurate and secure. In the majority of the categories, PwC will tabulate the ballots using the preferential voting system.
The 85th Academy Awards® nominations will be announced live on Thursday, January 10, 2013, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy's Samuel Goldwyn Theater.
Academy Awards for outstanding film achievements of 2012 will be presented on Oscar Sunday, February 24, 2013.
From NYTimes
A Documentary Maker Puts Money on an Oscar Ad
By MICHAEL CIEPLY
Matthew Hausle Steven C. Barber is the director of “Until They Are Home.”
So who needs a Lexus? Mr. Barber, who operates from a rent-controlled apartment here, bought a full-page “for your consideration” ad in Variety instead.
The ad, said Mr. Barber, who spoke by telephone last week, cost him a little less than its standard price of $13,500. As with almost everything related to his movies, he haggled — but at least he didn’t ask Variety for a contribution.
“I ask everyone for money,” said Mr. Barber, who describes himself as a salesman by nature. In fact, he makes a living by selling advertising when he isn’t pursuing his passion for documentary films, and especially those about repatriating the remains of American military personnel who died abroad.
“Until They Are Home” is a sequel to Mr. Barber’s 2009 film “Return to Tarawa: The Leon Cooper Story.” Both films examine the battle for Tarawa, an atoll where in 1943 more than 5,000 Americans and Japanese died, most on the island of Betio, which is smaller than Central Park.
The new movie is about a United States military mission — inspired by the first film — to reclaim the bodies left behind. T. Boone Pickens and Ted Leonsis, said Mr. Barber, are among the wealthy supporters who contributed to the film’s roughly $300,000 budget.
The country singer Clint Black contributed a song, “She Won’t Let Go.” The composer Jamie Dunlap, known for his work on “South Park,” was paid for a score. And Mr. Barber got them qualified for Oscar consideration by doing what most ambitious documentarians do — spending still more money.
For starters, it cost about $18,000, he said, to have the movie shown for a week in one theater each in New York and in Los Angeles, with accompanying ads in The Village Voice and The Los Angeles Times.
Conversion of the film to a specified digital format, another Oscar requirement, cost an additional $3,000. It took about $400 more to make some 200 DVDs for distribution to documentary branch members, who did not put the film on their short list of 15 contenders.
But Mr. Barber hedged his bets by filling out some extra paperwork for the group’s music branch. Hence, Mr. Black’s song became one of 75 that are being considered for nominations, while Mr. Dunlap became one of 104 official contenders in the best score category.
If they are nominated, Mr. Barber is confident he can raise more money, to be used for a film about repatriating remains from the Philippines. As for the Variety ad, he figured, it was worth a used Lexus.
“I’ve got to roll the dice,” he said, “and make it look like I’m bigger than I am.”
