No but I'm looking fwd to it RT @alfonsoespina Is the secret Oscar contender you watched recently In The Land of Blood and Honey?
@davekarger
Dave Karger
Oscar update: I saw Jason
Reitman's YOUNG ADULT which will be a strong contender for nods for
best actress (Charlize) & screenplay (Diablo).
9:28 PM via Twitter for iPad
Also just saw a fantastic movie that will definitely be nominated for Best Picture but I'm not allowed to tell you what it is!
What is noteworty is that unlike the tweet he sent immediately before that Theron and Cody would be "strong contenders", he was emphatic that the mystery film "will definitely be nominated for Best Picture." Short of predicting that it was a sure winner, it was the highest endorsement he could give.
Karger was then conspicuously absent from the Nov. 8 poll of the Gurus of Gold after sending his cryptic tweet, leaving other Oscar bloggers even more anxious to learn his secret.
Karger hasn't tweeted Sasha Stone back.
His rankings from the previous week's poll are shown below, with the initial post-tiff rankings in parenthesis.
1 The Artist (1)
2 Descendant (2)
3 War Horse (3)
4 Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (9)
5 The Help (8)
6 Midnight in Paris (6)
7 Moneyball (13)
8 Ides of March (5)
9 Hugo
10 The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (10)
11 Tree of Life (7)
12 Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (12)
(J. Edgar 4)
(Young Adult 11)
(We Bought a Zoo 14)
In the wake of his tweet, it is obvious that he abstained from voting in order to avoid revealing the identity of the mystery film.
Under the new Academy rules, there can be a minimum of 5 and maximum of 10 nominees. So for the Oscar gurus, the films ranked #s 1 - 5 would be those they consider "sure," while #6 - 10 would be "likely".
If Karger had previously ranked the mystery film as one of his "likely" nominees, he could promote it up a few slots to "sure" without attracting much comment. If it was already among his top 5, it would be even easier for him to quietly shift it at or near the top if it isn't already there. It is only if the the mystery film was ranked much lower would its sudden appearance at the top attract considerable attention. In which case listing it would have the same effect as revealing its identity and hence the need for him to abstain.
There are only three films among Karger's 12 Oscar choices that have not publicly screened or been formally reviewed, but only one that could still be under a super embargo. Karger has openly shared his thoughts on We Bought a Zoo, so it isn't under any embargo. Extremely Loud is already among his"sure" nominees and short reviews by other critics have appeared online so it doesn't have a strict embargo either.
Dragon Tattoo sits at the tail end of his likely nominees at #10 so bumping it up to #5 or higher could have attracted some attention, but 5 other gurus have picked it as a sure nominee so it isn't likely to raise too many eyebrows. What makes it doubtful that Dragon Tattoo is the mystery film is the fact that as of this writing, it is still unrated by the MPAA. There has been talk that Sony and Fincher are still discussing the running time so it is probably not yet locked or ready to be screened. Fincher is known to be a control freak and while it would be in character for him to insist on a super-embargo, I doubt he would want a critic to see the film before he has settled on a final cut.
So it appears Karger may be referring to a film that does not appear at all in his rankings
The only other Oscar contenders that have not had any public screenings or critical reactions are The Iron Lady and Blood & Honey. Iron Lady has been dogged by rumors that it has problems and Harvey Weinstein recently postponed its release by 2 weeks to Dec. 30 -- which for many bloggers raised warning flags. While The Iron Lady is not one of Karger's choices, it appears on the Gurus list and has low level votes from Pete Hammond and Greg Ellwood.
That leaves Blood and Honey. Thanks to Scott Feinberg, we know that Blood and Honey started screening Nov. 7 -- which is the same day Karger sent his tweet. The desire to maintain secrecy and impose a super-embargo would be consistent with Angelina's enigmatic nature. Brad declined to make any comment about the film to Josh Horowitz during Moneyball's tiff premiere and he told another interviewer that Angelina had asked him not to say anything. Blood and Honey has released just 3 stills and one trailer and still has no poster out. With no known film stars and an unproven writer and director, this has stayed under the radar of most Oscar bloggers. It isn't currently listed in the Gurus of Gold poll. But coupled with Angelina's star status, if Blood and Honey were to suddenly appear in Karger's rankings and be accorded a top 5 spot as a "sure" nominee, it would trigger tectonic reverberations extending far beyond the Oscar blogosphere.
So while it is impossible to totally rule out Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud and Iron Lady, the evidence points to Blood & Honey as being Karger's film.
The filmmakers could not have asked Karger to agree to a long super-embargo in the middle of Awards season so I suspect it would only be for a week or two and with a significant promised payback. Karger is likely just waiting for Angelina to return so he can have an exclusive first interview with her for EW.
Brad will be in Korea on Nov. 14 to meet the press and walk the red carpet for Moneyball's premiere the next day. So if Angelina accompanies him, she should be back in the U.S. by the 16th at the latest -- you gain a day when traveling from Asia to the U.S. so no time is lost in transit. She should be ready to do interviews and roundtables by the 17th.
If she accompanies Brad to Korea, Karger may have to miss or be late for the Nov 15 Gurus poll. If she returns on the 14th from Vietnam, he may be able vote in time.
As for Scott Feinberg who was the source of the earlier info about Blood and Honey's screenings, he has been silent but he said in his pod cast that he hasn't seen it yet but will do so when he returns to NY next week.
Haven't
seen it yet. It has begun screening but I've been traveling. I'll see
it sometime after I get back to New York next week. He also said he hasn't heard much from the screenings.
I haven't heard much of anything.
