All the feedback I've read so far points to it being a quality film. Rich Cohen said it was impressive and beautiful but as brutal as early Scorcese. Test audiences compared it Schindler's List and The English Patient. Angelina herself said that she is very happy with the results and Graham King said he is extremely proud of the film. I wouldn't expect them to lay their judgement on the line if they didn't believe strongly in it.
Given that none of the early contenders are slam dunks in the eyes of critics (and I agree since I've seen most of them including The Descendants and The Artist), the door is wide open for B&H to nab a nom and quite possibly go for the win. The only films that have impressed me based on their trailers and that I have not yet seen are Fincher's Dragon Tattoo and Tomas Alfredsson's remake of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. B&H has the advantage over both in that it is a serious drama and hence is more Oscar-friendly material.
In 2008, Angelina was widely expected to be nominated for A Mighty Heart. Newsweek invited her to join its annual Oscar roundtable with other likely nominees and she was honored at the Santa Barbara Film Fest which chooses an outstanding performer from the previous year. She had no problem garnering the first two legs of the awards trifecta: a Golden Globe and a SAG nomination. But the Academy, dominated by old members who were obviously influenced by tabloid nonsense, snubbed her. So when she gave another strong performance in Changeling the next year, Oscar pundits wondered if they would snub her again. But whether it was because they were finally past the gossip or because she was shepherded and championed by one of their favorites, Clint Eastwood, she finally received her 2nd Oscar nomination. As did Brad for Benjamin Button -- a rare feat of matching lead actor nominations.
That year probably marked the turning point for the couple's relationship with old Hollywood. Since then, respect and admiration for them has noticeably grown, influenced in no small measure by both their professional and philanthropic activities. So when the Academy members vote come January, if the widespread critical consensus is that they are both deserving, they shouldn't have any problem getting nominated. And this time around, they might both be favored to win.
Brad's turn as Billy Beane has received widespread praise, some say its a career best, and there is also growing sentiment that after over 20 years in the business and two previous nominations, he is due. On the other hand, if B&H delivers what the trailer promises, Angelina's case may be even more compelling.
Unlike other trailers that are amped up by a thumping soundtrack, B & H's is backed by a very subtle piano score, relying on frequently silent images to sell the movie. When she was choosing a title, she told Anthony Breznican that she was looking for one that would let people know what they were walking in to. That was likely also the guiding principle when she cut the trailer so I fully expect that it is a very faithful representation of what we can expect from the movie. It has evoked comparisons with the work of respected filmmakers like Anthony Minghella and if that view holds for the film, it would be hard not to acknowledge.
Below is one blogger, Ken Adams, who seems particularly convinced that B&H can go all the way based on what he's been told by those who've seen the film and by his own assessment of the trailer. For the most part, I agree with his choices.
For Your Consideration: Oscar Contenders 2012
Oct 22, 2011
Best Picture
1. The Tree of Life (Release Date: May 27th)
Now that the majority of the people have seen it, it's chances of a Best Picture nomination might have sunk, you would think, but as polarizing as Tree turned out to be, I'm keeping it here for many reasons. After all, if The Thin Red Line managed to get a nod, this makes Tree pretty much a given, I'd say...
2. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Release Date: December 21st)
Daniel Craig is pitch-perfectly cast as Mikael Blomqvist, but it's Rooney Mara's interpretation of Lisbeth Salander that can end up being one of the most electrifying performances of the year. What worries me the most though, are the Swedish accents that can sound very corny and over-the-top if everything goes wrong. And yes, I know a lot of people say that this doesn't even stand a chance of a nomination for being too dark and more Fincheresque than ever, but do you recall a film called No Country For Old Men, also pretty dark, that took home all the big awards back in 2008, that no one didn't think would sweep the awards that year either? Case closed.
3. In the Land of Blood and Honey
Well, a late addition to the Oscar race. Jolie's directorial debut looks very impressive and seems to handle the subject matter very well. With the Anthony Minghella meets Schindlers List tone set to it, I'm betting my money that this will be the big winner of next year, unless FilmDistrict once again fuck up on the marketing like they've done with Drive.
4. The Descendants (Release Date: November 23rd)
The reviews are in from Telluride, all being positive, with praise for Clooney's performance. But will the Academy go for such a downer?
5. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Release Date: November 18th)
I know Le Carre novels aren't big with the Academy, but my gutt says that Alfredsson & Co. will end up surprising everyone (those of you who have seen Let the Right One In probably know what I'm talking about), and Gary Oldman really needs that golden statue, even more than DiCaprio...
6. War Horse (Release Date: December 28th)
Steven Spelberg+war film=Awards darling!!
7. The Artist
It might be a silent black-and-white film, but it's been getting raves ever since it premiered in Cannes, and never ever underestimate the power of a certain Harvey Weinstein..
Best Director
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Angelina Jolie, In the Land of Blood and Honey
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
(Just missed the cut: Tomas Alfredsson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Martin Scorsese, Hugo; David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method; Roman Polanski, Carnage; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist)
Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
George Clooney, The Descendants
(Just missed the cut: Goran Kostic, In the Land of Blood and Honey; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Johnny Depp, The Rum Diary; Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method or Shame; Christoph Waltz, Carnage; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Matt Damon, We Bought A Zoo; Ryan Gosling, Drive; Paul Giamatti, Win Win; Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris; Ewan McGregor, Beginners; Joseph-Gordon-Levitt, 50/50)
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Viola Davis, The Help
(Just missed the cut: Elisabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Zana Marjanovic, In the Land of Blood and Honey; Jodie Foster, Carnage; Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia; Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs)
Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks, Drive
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
(Just missed the cut: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March; Ben Kingsley, Hugo; John C. Reilly, We Need To Talk About Kevin; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Giovanni Ribisi, The Rum Diary; Jeremy Irivine, War Horse; Paul Giamatti, The Ides of March; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar)
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Scarlett Johansson, We Bought A Zoo
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Viola Davis, The Help
(Just missed the cut: Evan Rachel Wood, The Ides of March; Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus; Kate Winslet, Carnage; Naomi Watts, J. Edgar; Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Elle Faning, We Bought A Zoo; Chloe Moretz, Hugo)
Best Original Screenplay
The Tree of Life
In the Land of Blood and Honey
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
50/50
(Just missed the cut: Beginners, Win Win, Contagion, Super 8, Our Idiot Brother, Like Crazy, Melancholia, Meek's Cutoff, J. Edgar)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
The Descendants
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
(Just missed the cut: Carnage, A Dangerous Method, The Rum Diary, The Ides of March, Killer Joe, Hugo, We Bought A Zoo, The Skin I Live In, We Need To Talk About Kevin)
Best Animated Feature
Rango
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Winnie the Pooh
Best Cinematography
The Tree of Life
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker, Tailor Soldier, Spy
Hugo
War Horse
Best Score
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part Two
The Artist
Hugo
War Horse
Best Visual Effects
The Tree of Life
Super 8
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part Two
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Film Editing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
In the Land of Blood and Honey
Drive
Hugo
War Horse
Best Costume Design
J.Edgar
A Dangerous Method
The Rum Diary
Hugo
W.E
Best Art Direction
Hugo
A Dangerous Method
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part Two
In the Land of Blood and Honey
The Tree of Life
Best Makeup
J.Edgar
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part Two
Best Sound Editing
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part Two
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Hugo
War Horse
In the Land of Blood and Honey
Best Sound Mixing
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part Two
Hugo
Super 8
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
War Horse
