Content provided by Matt Patches
11/23/2011,
The first ten months of the year can be a
mixed bag for award contenders. Maybe you'll see a few possibilities
sprinkled amongst the comic book blockbusters, the joke-a-minute
comedies and whatever else Hollywood has up their sleeves over January
to October months, but for the most part, studios hold off to unleash
their "Best Picture" challengers until late in the game.
Now that November and the holiday movie
season is here, we can finally take a size up the competition. What
we've seen, what's coming and what movies may make it to the finish line
when the Oscars roll around in February. It's anyone's game… or is it?
Get ahead of your office Oscar pool with a
look into the 2011 movies that are buzzing the loudest and guesses on
who might take the gold!
In the Land of Blood and Honey
Starring: Zana Marjanovic, Goran Kostic and Rade Serbedzija
Director: Angelina Jolie
Release Date: December 23, 2011
The Buzz: Pretty much none, minus the first,
shockingly well made trailer for Jolie's directorial debut. The movie
centers on a romance amidst the Bosnian War and Jolie went out of her
way to cast authentic actors for the parts. Meaning that, without stars,
the movie's Oscar buzz is born purely from Jolie's name and the serious
topic at hand.
Potential: One of this year's biggest wild
cards. Everyone is waiting to be impressed by Jolie's In the Land of
Blood and Honey, and if she pulls it off, an Oscar nomination seems like
a given. The world loves Angelina Jolie, they want more female
directors and they'll give her a nod of it's reasonable.
The Descendants
Starring: George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Beau Bridges, Robert Forster
Director: Alexander Payne
Previously Released: November 16, 2011
The Buzz: A George Clooney dramedy from the
man behind Sideways, About Schmidt and Election? It's no surprise that
Payne's new film has been going over well with festival audiences -- The
Descendants is hilarious when it dabbles in comedy, heartbreaking in
its dramatic moments. The story revolves around a man who discovers his
comatose wife was having an affair before her tragic accident, leaving
him displaced and in charge of his two daughters. George Clooney
delivers one of his best performances to date, but even more impressive
is Payne's ensemble cast, including an impressive turn by The Secret
Life of an American Teen's Shailene Woodley.
Potential: The Descendants may be the movie
to beat in 2011. It has the A-List talent, an out-of-nowhere newcomer, a
handful of oh-right-that-guy! supporting roles (Bridges, Forster,
Matthew Lillard, Judy Greer) and a director the voters already love.
Expect this one to be in the running for Best Picture, Director, Actor,
Screenplay and potentially Supporting Actress. A great film that plays
broadly enough to win some big awards.
Drive
Starring: Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Bryan Cranston, Albert Brooks
Director: Nicolas Winding Refn
Previously Released: September 16, 2011
The Buzz: Director Refn and Ryan Gosling set
out to make their gritty crime film the way they wanted to, a meditative
too-cool-for-school drama full of color and pseudo-'80s music. The
movie managed to do solid business, garnering praise from critics and
auidences, but left some misguided people less than thrilled. In fact,
the movie has had numerous lawsuits filed against for misrepresenting
itself in trailers. That's what you get for trying to be original! Early
buzz saw Gosling and Refn as shoe-ins, but the focus has begun to turn
from style and substance to the movie's real life problems.
Potential: At this point, with all the
hullabaloo over what Drive was or wasn't, the movie's awards prospects
seem to be dwindling. Gosling is solid in the movie, but it may not be
showy enough for voters (especially if they were closing their eyes
during the elevator scene). The movie is slick and satisfying, but I
don't expect this one to revive itself in time to win awards.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Starring: Thomas Horn, Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock, Max von Sydow
Director: Stephen Daldry
Release Date: January 20, 2012
The Buzz: Daldy is batting three for three
with his award/movie ratio, with Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader
all nabbing Best Director nominations. Now he joins to past Oscar
winners to the equation, Hanks and Bullock, plus a topic that is sure to
stir a few audience members: September 11. These are the kind of movies
the phrase "Oscar bait" was born to describe -- but only because the
talent is known to deliver. Extremely Loud skipped the festival circuit,
so the one remaining, intriguing question mark is the film's young star
Thomas Horn, who supposedly carries the movie.
Potential: The first trailer for the movie
didn't do much to inspire, but as is always the case, the past is as
much an influence on who's nominated and who wins than the movie itself.
The combo of Daldry/Hanks/Bullock may negate actual quality, making
Extremely Loud a Best Picture shoe-in. Early word is that legendary
actor Max von Sydow's role is sizable and meaty enough that he could be
the real scene-stealer.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Starring: Rooney Mara, Daniel Craig, Robin Wright
Director: David Fincher
Release Date: December 21, 2011
The Buzz: Take one of the most popular books
of the last decade, add the Oscar-nominated director of The Social
Network and throw in some killer actors and you've got yourself
potential double-winner, one that plays to both the mainstream and art
house crowds. The pulpy novel may not be obvious Oscar-fodder, but with
Fincher at the helm and Mara with her biggest role to date, the
possibilities are there. No one has seen the movie yet, but the trailers
have been keeping the movie on brain since the summer.
Potential: There's a lot of competition out
there and even with Fincher's keen eye for visuals, the murder mystery
source material may not be heavy enough for true Oscar consideration.
The one with the most on her side is Mara, who transformered herself
from beautiful ingenue
The Help
Starring: Emma Stone, Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Allison Janey, Jessica Chastain
Director: Tate Taylor
Previously Released: August 10, 2011
The Buzz: Unknown Tate Taylor adapted and
directed an adaptation of his childhood friend Kathryn Stockett's
acclaimed novel The Help, turning it into the kind of sugary sweet drama
that's been virtually non-existent since the '90s. Reviews were above
average, with heaps of praise for Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer, and
the movie went on to hit number one at the box office three weeks in a
row.
Potential: As a gargantuan, feel-good hit of
the summer, The Help is one of the safest bets for Best Picture
material. Award prognosticators are up in the air over the acting
talent, but almost everyonea agrees that Spencer could take home the
Best Supporting Actress statue, with Viola Davis being a solid prospect
for Best Actress.
Hugo
Starring: Asa Butterfield, Chloe Moretz, Ben Kingsley, Sacha Baron Cohen
Director: Martin Scorsese
Release Date: November 23, 2011
The Buzz: Scorsese's latest premiered at a
secret screening during the New York Film Festival, drawing divisive
opinions from the crowd. People expecting a kids movie were rather taken
aback by the movie's mature, whimsical storyline, while others (like
myself, which you can read about here), found it entrancing. The movie
is chock full of references to the early days of cinema, which didn't
necessarily jive with expectations. The movie was unfinished, but
amongst all the dividing elements, the 3D stood out in all
post-screening murmurs.
Potential: Hugo is a love letter to the
movies, which could potentially win over some of the older voting
members. While the finished cut I saw was a bit jumbled in its
storytelling, Scorsese could easily pull off a Best Director nomination
for his innovative use of 3D. I may also be the only person who thinks
Butterfield's performance in the lead role of Hugo is a pleasant
surprise -- not once do you consider the young discovery to be a "child
actor."
Ides of March
Starring: Ryan Gosling, George Clooney, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Evan Rachel Wood, Paul Giamatti, Marisa Tomei, Jeffrey Wright
Director: George Clooney
Previously Released: October 7, 2011
The Buzz: Clooney returning behind the camera
to direct an A-List cast on a hot political topic sounds like an Oscar
frontrunner, but reviews were middling and the box office return below
expectations. The movie premiered at Venice Film Festival, with Clooney
taking home the Brian Award (Note: after a few minutes of research, I
can't figure out what a person wins a Brian award for...), but sailed in
to theaters this October to little fanfare.
Potential: Did Ryan Gosling pull a Jude Law
and over-saturate the market with his slew of solid performances? With
so many movies in one year, and without anyone in particular earning
rave reviews, Gosling may have fizzed out on his chances at an Oscar
nomination. But if the contest for Best Actor and Best Director are
looking weak, Gosling and Clooney are in line to take the spots -- but
winning feels like a stretch.
In the Land of Blood and Honey
Starring: Zana Marjanovic, Goran Kostic and Rade Serbedzija
Director: Angelina Jolie
Release Date: December 23, 2011
The Buzz: Pretty much none, minus the first,
shockingly well made trailer for Jolie's directorial debut. The movie
centers on a romance amidst the Bosnian War and Jolie went out of her
way to cast authentic actors for the parts. Meaning that, without stars,
the movie's Oscar buzz is born purely from Jolie's name and the serious
topic at hand.
Potential: One of this year's biggest wild
cards. Everyone is waiting to be impressed by Jolie's In the Land of
Blood and Honey, and if she pulls it off, an Oscar nomination seems like
a given. The world loves Angelina Jolie, they want more female
directors and they'll give her a nod of it's reasonable.
The Iron Lady
Starring: Meryl Streep, Jim Broadbent
Director: Phyllida Lloyd
Release Date: December 16, 2011
The Buzz: Meryl Streep. Playing a real life
political figure. That's pretty much all you need to know. The Iron Lady
has yet to screen in festivals, but with 16 Oscar nominations under her
belt, the expectations are high for her to deliver a knock out
performance as former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Potential: Only an act of God would keep
Streep out of the Best Actress race. The rest of the film is anyone's
guess, but Mamma Mia! director Lloyd doesn't inspire much confidence.
J. Edgar
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Armie Hammer, Naomi Watts
Director: Clint Eastwood
Previously Released: November 9, 2011
The Buzz: Eastwood's biopic of FBI head
honcho J. Edgar Hoover madeits debut this year's AFI Festival, but early
word is that the movie was a bit of a dud. The aged
actor-turned-director tends to go soft when the drama gets heavy, with
his past few movies middling out in the "OK" territory (Invictus,
Hereafter). Leonardo DiCaprio is as solid as they come, but even the
first trailer rang a little goofy and melodramatic.
Potential: Voters love them some Eastwood and DiCaprio, and the latter is probably a lock for the Best Actor race.
Midnight in Paris
Starring: Owen Wilson, Rachel McAdams
Director: Woody Allen
Previously Released: June 10, 2011
The Buzz: Modern Woody Allen has been hit or
miss: for every Match Point, you get a movie like Cassandra's Dream that
never quite finds its footing or audience. Midnight in Paris was a huge
hit for Allen, breaking out during the summer of action blockbusters
and quickly becoming Allen's highest grossing film to date (the demand
was so high for the movie, it was reopened in theaters after its limited
run concluded). Stars Wilson and McAdams haven't been generating too
much talk, overshadowed by the movie's general success.
Potential: Despite all the thumbs up approval
for the film, Midnight in Paris may be a bit too light and whimsical to
contend with the end-of-year heavy hitters. That said, it could sneak
its way into the flexible number of Best Picture nominees (unlike last
year, which sported ten, the 2011 count will be determined by X amount
of movies achieving a certain number of votes). The spotlight here is on
Allen, who could snatch up his 15th writing nomination and first
directing nomination in 17 years.
Melancholia
Starring: Kirsten Dunst, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Kiefer Sutherland
Director: Lars von Trier
Previously Released: October 21, 2011
The Buzz: I caught the movie at the New York
Film Festival and was subsequently blown away by Dunst, who also won the
Best Actress award at this May's Cannes Film Festival. Unfortunately,
during festival interviews for the film, the always-lively director Lars
von Trier made a crack about Nazis that exploded in a fury of bad
press. The incident hasn't affected people's mostly-positive reviews for
the film, but may have put a damper on any award consideration. Von
Trier certainly isn't returning to Cannes any time soon.
Potential: Considering the joke controversy,
Melancholia's chances look slim, but if distributor Magnolia makes a big
enough push at the end of the year, reminding people of Dunst's
reinventing turn, the actress may have a chance in the race. There might
be a few technical awards in Melancholia's future, but other than that,
it's all about the leading lady.
Moneyball
Starring: Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill, Philip Seymour Hoffman
Director: Bennett Miller
Previously Released: September 23, 2011
The Buzz: Moneyball might be the
quintessential Oscar movie, for better or worse. Brad Pitt stars in the
adaptation of a best-selling sports book adapted by Steven Zaillian
(Schindler's List) and Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) and helmed by
Miller (Oscar-nominated for Capote). Throw in a hot young comedian
flexing his range (Hill) and an Oscar-winning co-star (Hoffman) and you
have the makings of a frontrunner. But reviews were mixed (I loved it),
and Pitt's role didn't lend itself to flashy bravado.
Potential: The problem with an early Fall
release date is that a movie's momentum can wane, with talk of other
Oscar possibilities taking its place. Moneyball might be drowning in the
flutter of its prestigious company, but as one of the truly great films
of the year, may stick around long enough for it to creep up into the
Best Picture race. If Brad Pitt's other lead role (Tree of Life) doesn't
cancel him out, he also a good shot at a Best Actor spot. On the fringe
if Miller, who once again knocks it out of the park (ahem) and could
find himself with a second Best Director nomination.
My Week with Marilyn
Starring: Michelle Williams, Eddie Redmayne, Kenneth Branagh, Emma Watson
Director: Simon Curtis
Release Date: November 23, 2011
The Buzz: The slice of Marilyn Monroe life
flick debuted at the New York Film Festival and the loudest comparison
was "the King's Speech of 2011." That's both a compliment and a curse --
as our own musing on the movie details, My Week with Marilyn is a
light, enjoyable film without much underneath. The only aspect people
are really talking about is Michelle Williams, who embodies the blonde
bombeshell's magnetism as well as diving into her darker side. Williams
has already won an Actress of the Year award at the Hollywood Film
Festival and the buzz for her performance should last all the way to
February.
Potential: Williams is a lock for a Best
Actress nominee and is already a clear frontrunner. If the King's Speech
connection is as apt as those dropping the bomb insist, then Marilyn
could be the feel good movie of the year -- which tends to translate to
Oscar noms. There's not enough critical response for the movie to take
Best Picture, but it's certainly a contender.
Shame
Starring: Michael Fassbender, Carey Mulligan
Director: Steve McQueen
Release Date: December 2, 2011
The Buzz: McQueen's second film (and second
teaming with Fassbender) has been working the festival circuit steadily,
premiering in Venice then jumping to Toronto and New York. Along the
way, it's picked up favorable response -- but each review found itself
questioning of who could out the sexually explicit drama. Now Fox
Searchlight has stepped in and embraced the movie's NC-17 rating, and
with it, a push for Fassbender for Best Actor. He deserves it for sure
-- the movie is a visceral experience and the actor pours himself into
the role.
Potential: NC-17 movies rarely find
themselves nominated for awards -- the only Best Picture winner,
Midnight Cowboy, actually won with the less damning "X" rating -- but
Shame might have what it takes. Voters aren't known to lean towards the
"perverse," but Michael Fassbender's enthralling role is the kind of
emotional ride they look for in a Best Actor and McQueen's expert
directing is undeniable. Nominating Shame could be an industry-changing
move, shattering a stigma that's existed for far too long.
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Starring: Gary Oldman, Colin Firth, Tom Hardy
Director: Tomas Alfredson
Release Date: December 9, 2011
The Buzz: Based on the acclaimed novel by
John le Carré, Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy was previously adapted as a
mini-series starring Alec Guinness. Now it's a the ultimate British
ensemble movie, headlined by Oldman, Firth and Hardy, but co-starring
fantastic character actors like Benedict Cumberbatch, Mark Strong and
CiarĂ¡n Hinds. Adding to the array of talent is Tomas Alfredson, who
previously directed the critical hit Let the Right One In and who
appears to have crafted a tense, adult thriller (a rarity in current
times). The movie played Venice Film Festival and has opened in the UK,
and while people are high on the movie, it could potentially be too
dense for the common voter (sad, but true).
Potential: No matter what the U.S. critical
consensus is on Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy, star Gary Oldman should be
touted as a frontrunner for Best Actor. He's gone long under-praised by
the Academy and people want to give him an award. The fact that he's
being praised for the role should help. The other possibility is a Best
Supporting Actor nomination for Tom Hardy, the It-Guy of the past two
years. Whether the movie can break out as a Best Picture possibility may
depend on how it plays with American audiences -- something we'll know
when release rolls around.
The Tree of Life
Starring: Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastain, Sean Penn
Director: Terrence Malick
Previously Released: May 27, 2011
The Buzz: Director Terrence Malick began
conceiving Tree of Life decades ago, and after years of writing and
planning, the film finally went into production... in 2008. Malick spent
years holed up editing the massive undertaking, a visually poetic look
on existence, death and everything surrounding it, big and small. Fans
of the reclusive filmmaker had built up a tremendous amount of
anticipation for the film, a level few thought could be matched.
Thankfully, when the film hit theaters it swept up most of its
audiences. Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastain and Sean Penn feel like bit
players in the film's larger mosaic, leaving them out of the spotlight,
but the movie continues to resonate and will likely end up on many a
"Best of 2011" list.
Potential: Whether Tree of Life connected
with Academy voters or not, it feels like an important film. That goes a
long way and could help Malick land a Best Director spot, as well as a
Best Picture nomination. While many are touting Pitt as a likely
candidate for Best Actor, I don't see it -- unlike Moneyball, he feels
removed from the action, and I imagine most voters would agree.
Technical awards also feel like locks: the movie's special effects by
guru Douglass Trumbell are breathtaking and Alexandre Desplat's score is
riveting. In a just world, youngster Hunter McCracken would see a
nomination (he is the lead), but it's unlikely.
War Horse
Starring: Jeremy Irvine, David Thewlis, Emily Watson, Tom Hiddleston, a Horse
Director:Steven Spielberg
Release Date: December 25, 2011
The Buzz: Steven Spielberg returns to
dramatic realism with the epic story of a boy and his horse, crossing
the landscape of war-torn Europe. A select (quiet) few have seen the
movie, but already it's galloping its way to the front of the back for
Best Picture. All the ingredients are there, from an ensemble of British
thespians to the grandmaster of heartwarming filmmaking, and a
triumphant John Williams score never hurts win voters over. This might
be the one to beat, unless it's actually too heartwarming.
Potential: Nominations the board for War
Horse. Picture, Director and every technical award under the sun. The
only categories War Horse may not breach are the acting accolades --
much like Titanic, the sweeping epic may put an emphasis on scope rather
than singular performances. If critical praise is high on this one, it
shouldn't be difficult for it to go all the way.
We Bought a Zoo
Starring: Matt Damon, Scarlett Johansson, Thomas Haden Church
Director: Cameron Crowe
Release Date: December 23, 2011
The Buzz: Crowe returns after an extended
hiatus (post-Elizabethtown) with a sentimental family drama starring
Damon as a father who moves his family to a zoo. Judging from the first
trailer, the movie looks like a family friendlier version of Crowe's
Jerry Maguire -- which opens the door for Oscar possibilities. No one
has seen the movie yet, but history awards We Bought a Zoo automatic
points.
Potential: The movie may end up being a bit
to soft to be a real contender, but Matt Damon's so darn likeable,
there's a strong possibility voters will show him some love. It speaks
to his body of work-no one is going to nominate him for his performance
in Contagion and after stiffing him for True Grit, the Academy owes him
one.
Win Win
Starring: Paul Giamatti, Amy Ryan, Bobby Cannavale
Director: Tom McCarthy
Previously Released: March 18
The Buzz: There was already Oscar talk for
Win Win when it premiered at this year's Sundance Film Festival, but
even with brilliant, comedic performances by Giamatti, Ryan and
supporting star Cannavale, the movie's fallen to the wayside. As a
champion of this movie, I insist people start talking about it more!
Potential: There is still a chance Win Win
could come through all the way to the Oscars thanks to a little thing
called the Golden Globes. Comedy is a hard sell for voters, but the
Globes give the funny men and women of the year their own chance at
glory. Giamatti and Ryan are shoe-ins and with enough chatter
beforehand, could even bump a few bigger performances out of their way.
McCarthy, one of today's best writer/director's, could also take a Best
Original Screenplay nomination, a category that's always reaching for
entries as Hollywood relies on source material as a creative crutch.
Young Adult
Starring: Charlize Theron, Patrick Wilson, Patton Oswalt
Director: Jason Reitman
Release Date: December 16, 2011
The Buzz: The creative team behind Juno is
taking a different approach to building buzz for their new movie.
Instead of running it at festivals, they're taking it to the streets,
touring the movie across the country and playing to hometown audiences.
Out of those screenings come two vibes: "strong" and "dark." The movie
stars Theron as a burnt out young adult fiction writer who returns to
her hometown to win back her ex-boyfriend (who is currently married).
Reitman and writer Diablo Cody struck gold with their first
collaboration and with witty writing, they could do it again. Word on
the street is Young Adult may be Theron's best performance to date.
Potential: The pedigree might be there, but
if Young Adult is too dark, too mean-spirited and puts all its chips on a
character voters despise, it may not feel the love Juno saw a few years
back. Then again, Theron won her first Oscar for playing a serial
killer (Monster), proving that if the talent is there, so are the
awards. Cody and Reitman both seem likely to nab respective nominations
for writing and directing, but it'll all come down to response once
Academy members see the film -- which the studio doesn't seem to
interested in making happen.
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