The combined opinion of Awards experts, Gold Derby Editors, and top users I feel is the best gauge of the current state of the race.  The bigger the sample of people with access to voters, the more reliable it will be.  It evens out personal biases and includes the most current opinions.

There is an interesting similarity in the trajectories of Angelina, The Brutalist, director Brady Corbet and Adrien Brody. 

Gold Derby Predicted Winners Odds Graph

Oscars Nominations 2025

Combined (Experts, Editors, Users)