Thoughts
I thought Expendables 2 was a vast improvement over Expendables and found it to be enjoyable B-movie fare that accomplished what it set out to do. But I also left the theater thinking that it would have been better if they avoided close-ups of Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger altogether. They were playing bad ass characters with the same swagger they had years ago but despite their best efforts, and the self-mocking lines in the dialogue, close-ups just drew attention to the fact that they were too old for the genre. So even though The Last Stand received decent reviews, I had no intention of seeing it on the big screen. Judging by Stand's dismal numbers, I imagine many others may have felt the same way. After a succession of films starring aging stars in bad-ass mode (the aforementioned Expendables, Taken, Red), it is no longer a novelty.
The U.S. grosses for Expendables 2 and Taken 2 were both lower than their predecesor's but strong international sales made up the slack. This underscores the value to studios of having sequels and big movie stars who can salvage a film's fortunes in the growing overseas market. Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie did it two years ago when they co-starred in The Tourist and made it a global hit -- a wasted effort in an ineptly directed film where they were in poorly sketched roles. But The Last Stand has Schwarzenegger in his signature bad ass mode and given how poorly it fared in the U.S., I am skeptical that he can salvage it overseas.
Based on the results of the last few years, the only actors I consider to be bonafide worldwide mega stars are Will Smith, Angelina Jolie, Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt, Leo diCaprio and Robert Downey, Jr. Their names above the marquee guarantee a big boost in ticket sales -- although even they can't make every film a hit.
I've left Tom Cruise off because the results of his last few non-MI films show that his star seems to be fading both in the U.S. and -- more worrisome for him -- overseas. Looking at Jack Reacher's results worldwide, it's hard to say if it would not have done better with another actor like Dwayne Johnson or Chris Hemsworth in the lead. That would not be true for any film that Smith, Jolie, Pitt, diCaprio, Depp or Downey starred in in recent years.
The Twilight and Harry Potter stars have their following but so far, it hasn't translated into convincing success in films outside their respective franchises. Channing Tatum, Chris Hemsworth, Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone have enjoyed recent success and they could be the next generation of box office stars.
But for now, its just Smith, Jolie, Pitt, diCaprio, Depp and Downey -- not necessarily in that order.
Smith has appeared in just one film -- MIB3 -- over the last four years and seems to be focusing more on being a producer and shepherding his children's careers. While MIB3's $624M fell well short of the $800M that Sony was hoping for, not many other actors would have been able to lead their films to even that level. Still, Smith's bargaining position could be affected because MIB is his signature franchise and Sony may just barely recoup costs. But a slight dip for Smith would still leave him higher than almost everyone else since he is still far and away the box office king.
By the time Maleficent comes out, Jolie will have been away from the big screen for four years. The studio's decision to move Maleficent from the relative safety of March raised eyebrows as well as expectations. Disney is very protective of their lucrative proprietary characters which give them valuable merchandise and theme park sales. So they wouldn't have placed "one of Disney's most beloved villains" in the highly competitive July 4th weekend if they didn't believe it would enhance its success. And Jolie's box office drawing power would have factored prominently in their calculations. Regardless of how Maleficent fares, Jolie will still remain the biggest female star in the world. But a hit would be reassuring even as she prepares for another iconic role in another big-budget production in Cleopatra.
Over the last six years Pitt has eschewed blockbusters in favor of quality drama and for his efforts, received 3 Oscar nominations as an actor and producer. But dramas don't pay very much and he took pay cuts to get Moneyball amd Killing Them Softly made. If his WWZ opening this June is a hit, he stands to benefit as the star and producer. If it isn't, he can just go back to Awards-worthy drama and it isn't likely to have a huge impact on his star value.
diCaprio starred in such recent hits as Inception and Django Unchained but his star power in both cases was overshadowed by that of Christopher Nolan and Quentin Tarantino respectively. His upcoming Great Gatsby may be a better gauge of his drawing power.
Depp and Downey are the only actors in this group who have regularly appeared in blockbusters over the last few years. In fact, except for Depp's passion project, The Rum Diary which lost money for GK Films, he has worked exclusively in big-budget productions. But his forays outside POTC have had mixed results. After Dark Shadows stumbled badly, all eyes will be on the $250M Lone Ranger which unites him with his original POTC director, Gore Verbinsky. Depp is heavily reliant on fantasy roles which he plays with similar quirky mannerisms under heavy make-up. With the exception of The Tourist where he had help from Jolie, films wherein he plays normal people like Diary and Public Enemies have not clicked with audiences. If Ranger also disappoints, he'll be seen as largely a franchise star whose fortunes are tied to POTC, which itself is an aging franchise.
Downey's success is anchored on just 2 well-known characters -- Tony Stark and Sherlock Holmes -- which he plays with similar schticks. After The Soloist fared poorly, he has avoided starring in riskier, non-blockbuster fare and has rarely taken off his Iron Man costume. His recent box office numbers with the addition of The Avengers are downright gaudy. But it remains to be seen if he can lead a film with an original character to similar success.
So in this elite group, I would put Smith, Jolie, Pitt and diCaprio a notch above Depp and Downey because they've been able to lead original titles in different genres to box office success.
-- Fussy
From THR
Arnold Schwarzenegger Risks Termination at the Box Office
As "The Last Stand" flops, analysts see a tough road for The Governator's next films as age and personal scandal take their toll on the 65-year-old.
This story first appeared in the Feb. 1 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.He'll be back. But does anyone care? In the wake of the U.S. box-office failure of The Last Stand, Arnold Schwarzenegger's first starring vehicle in nearly a decade, doubts are being cast about several of his upcoming movies. And some are questioning whether the former California governor has any future as an action star.
Last Stand was supposed to herald an action-hero comeback for Schwarzenegger, 65, who sought to join peers Sylvester Stallone, Liam Neeson and Bruce Willis as Hollywood's apparently ageless wonders. Instead, it has turned into a referendum on whether The Governator can recover from personal scandal and a longtime absence from the silver screen. The film's mixed reviews and dismal $7.2 million gross over the long Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend -- a 10th-place finish -- put big pressure on his upcoming projects.
"All eyes were on this movie, and appropriately so," says box-office analyst Paul Dergarabedian. "If you want to mount a comeback, this is not the way you want to start. But in Hollywood, you get several chances. If I were him, I'd get Terminator 5 on the fast track."
STORY: Box Office Report: 'Mama' Wins Big Friday With $10.1 Mil; Schwarzenegger's 'Last Stand' Bombs
It's difficult to gauge whether audiences -- especially women, who made up just 40 percent of the R-rated Last Stand's audience -- stayed away because of Schwarzenegger's separation from Maria Shriver following the disclosure that he had a child with their housekeeper. Arnold's recent book, Total Recall, sold a poor 21,000 copies in its first week in release in October. But Lionsgate and sister company Summit won't have much time to ponder Schwarzenegger's weaknesses and strengths as they gear up to market his next film, The Tomb. Opening Sept. 27, the action thriller stars Schwarzenegger opposite Stallone as prisoners who mount a bold escape. Then comes Ten, due in theaters in January 2014, which features Arnold as the commander of an elite Drug Enforcement Agency squad that steals from a cartel. Open Road Films is distributing the film, directed by David Ayer and also featuring Sam Worthington, Terrence Howard and Mireille Enos.
"If they work, he's fine," says one agent. "But if they follow the trajectory of Last Stand, he's done."
In the meantime, Schwarzenegger has several big projects looming -- including Terminator 5. The revival of the franchise is being mounted by siblings Megan Ellison and David Ellison via their respective Annapurna Pictures and Skydance Productions. Earlier in January, they set Laeta Kalogridis and Patrick Lussier to write the script, signaling that the project is a go. Schwarzenegger also is attached to Universal's Triplets -- a follow-up to the 1988 comedy Twins -- and The Legend of Conan.
STORY: 'The Last Stand': What the Critics Are Saying
"Let's face it, you put Arnold in a Terminator movie, and it will open at No. 1," says Dergarabedian. "I'm not going to count him out yet. In the case of The Last Stand, it came down to the movie. It opened in a very competitive marketplace, and the concept wasn't that appealing."
Lionsgate had hoped that Last Stand would mirror the The Expendables franchise, which features a parade of older actors, including Stallone and Willis. Schwarzenegger made a cameo in the first film and played an expanded role in the sequel, which grossed $300.4 million worldwide in 2012. He even was featured prominently in the marketing.
But Last Stand -- a $45 million-budgeted tale about a washed-up sheriff who becomes embroiled in a drug war -- didn't have The Expendables' kitsch. Moviegoers between 35 and 49, the demo that feasted on Schwarzenegger's action films of the 1980s and '90s, gave Last Stand a C+ Cinemascore, the lowest grade of any age group. Lionsgate tried to lure younger moviegoers by casting Johnny Knoxville in the movie, but it still was seen as a Schwarzenegger film, with only 28 percent of the audience under age 25.
"There's an entire generation of young people that was wondering why the governor of California was starring in a movie," says one studio observer.
STORY: Arnold Schwarzenegger Compares Himself to Roman Emperor at 'Last Stand' Premiere Party
Many believe Schwarzenegger -- who earned between $8 million and $10 million plus backend for Last Stand, a big fee but down from his $20 million-plus salary in his prime -- might have greater success overseas, where star power can have more weight and audiences love action. The Jan. 20 premiere of the film in Cologne, Germany, easily overshadowed the premiere of Denzel Washington's Flight in Berlin on the same night in local media. "He's Back" was a common headline.
"There is an appetite for these kinds of films -- look at the success of The Expendables," says Andreas Klein, head of Splendid Films, which is distributing Last Stand in Germany (Lionsgate did about $25 million worth of foreign sales). Splendid also released Expendables and its sequel, which grossed $215.4 million overseas, compared with $85 million domestic.
Others disagree, pointing out that Tom Cruise's recent Jack Reacher underperformed overseas. (Like Schwarzenegger, Cruise's image also has been impacted by personal drama.)
"Just because Arnold Schwarzenegger is in it doesn't mean it's going to be a big hit," says one international buyer. "He's risky."
From Showbiz411
Jessica Chastain “Mama” Does 4 Times the Business of Arnold’s “Last Stand” in 6 Days
Roger Friedman
Arnold Schwarzenegger is taking a beating at the box office. And it’s not from robot or android or massively muscled rival. Petite red headed Jessica Chastain, star of “Mama,” is thrashing Arnold’s “Last Stand.” The horror film starring the Oscar nominated actress from “Zero Day Thirty” has done more than four times the box office business of Arnold’s return to the screen. In the same six day period, “Mama” has made over $34 million. “The Last Stand” has done about $8.3 million. It does seem like poetic justice that Schwarzenegger, notoriously not nice to women, is meeting his match from a serious, gifted actress. By the looks of things, “The Last Stand” will fade after this weekend, while “Mama” and “Zero Dark Thirty” will continue to rule the box office. Plus, Chastain is still doing swell on Broadway in “The Heiress.” Good for her!
