Thoughts
Judd Apotow's This is 40 is keeping pace with Jack Reacher even though its on 440 fewer theaters, received slightly weaker reviews and is a smaller production costing half as much as Reacher. Reacher also notably trails all the new wide Christmas day releases including Parental Guidance which has an abysmal 17% critic score on RT.
There is no question that Cruise's drawing power has been affected by his recurring personal problems, but expectations for Reacher were also inflated by MI-4's success. I've always felt that Brad Bird's skillful direction is what propelled MI-4 to far outperform its predecessor, MI-3, since little else changed. MI-4's almost $700M was a franchise best and a career best for Cruise. Both Cruise and the studios then rushed to take advantage of what they saw as his box office resurgence. Aside from Reacher, two other action films are in various stages of production with MI-5 tentatively set for 2015.
Oblivion from Universal is due out April 2013 and All You Need is Kill from Warner Bros. will be released March 2014. Both are big-budget $140M productions. Reacher's modest holiday numbers are probably causing greater anxiety in the executive offices of Universal and Warner than in Paramount which backed Reacher with a lower $60M budget. Nevertheless, Paramount had clung to the hope that Reacher would hit $100M domestic even as its $15M opening made that figure look exceedingly optimistic. It probably gives us an idea of what Paramount execs were expecting when they greenlit the film.
Cruise was at one point arguably the biggest movie star in the world with a string of critical and commercial hits. He established a rep for being one of the hardest working actors, always deeply involved in crafting his characters, and seldom appeared in a bad film. He maintained a pleasant and steady public persona flashing his trademark megawatt smile.
Things started to change a few years ago after he fired his long-time PR agent Pat Kingsley who had tightly controlled his press coverage and had his sister take over. Appearing more spontaneous, outspoken and combative, he went on Oprah and ebulliently jumped on her couch. He then took on Matt Lauer, psychiatry and Brooke Shields in rapid succession. It was Cruise unshackled and some would say unhinged. There was a tectonic shift in public opinion abetted by the internet which was gathering steam as the driving force behind pop culture. In its aftermath, MI-3 and Knight and Day disappointed and studios shied away or drove harder bargains. Then came MI-4.
Just before Rock of Ages opened, Katie Holmes' stealthily planned and precision-executed "escape" blind-sided Cruise. Various unflattering articles subsequently appeared in Vanity Fair and others and all told, was like a drone strike that derailed his PR comeback. They all but cemented his image as a coldly calculating Scientology automaton. Even serious movie writers couldn't resist the temptation to have some fun at Cruise's expense.
There are few bonafide worldwide box office stars today so the studios' eagerness to re-embrace Cruise and have him anchor their tentpoles is understandable. He is a true movie star -- tireless, reliable and professional in his dealings with studios and his fans. But having one action film after another was a questionable decision and is looking like a bigger gamble now after both Rock of Ages and Jack Reacher have underperformed. Ages was at least just an off-beat supporting role in a musical parody much like his part in Tropic Thunder. Reacher is a full-bore star vehicle and a hoped-for franchise starter that shows off his action skills in his bread and butter genre.
To be a blockbuster hit, a film must appeal to a broad audience outside of the core movie fans who regularly watch most new releases. That means enticing moviegoers who usually only watch a handful of films a year. With his recent problems, marketing for a Cruise blockbuster must work harder to lure in audiences -- including those who may be uneasy about his personal life -- and convince them to buy him as a larger-than-life hero. It's obviously easier to buy heroic figures onscreen if they don't have a lot of unheroic off-screen baggage. That Cruise almost always plays action heroes that are knights-in-shining armor rather than dark and conflicted characters makes it a more difficult task.
Reacher had a lot going for it that should have translated into much bigger box office numbers. It has Cruise in full bad-ass action mode which has consistently produced his best box office results, it can draw from the established fan base for Lee Child's best-selling novels, and it received decent reviews. Studio execs had many reasons to expect Reacher to do much better than the similar-themed Taken. Before Taken, the older Liam Neeson was known more as a dramatic actor and Taken was a totally new story from Luc Besson made for a much smaller budget. That Reacher seems on track to finish with just half of Taken's domestic gross will, at the very least, throw into doubt a Reacher sequel.
The numbers for Reacher so far are closer to what Mark Wahlberg or Jason Statham routinely put up -- good enough for a B-movie, but not for a starring vehicle of a mega-star of his stature and pay scale. If Cruise can't fill enough seats for Reacher, there will be serious questions about his box office drawing power. The unavoidable conclusion based on the results of his last few films is that his persistent personal problems may be causing a sizable segment of his erstwhile audience to turn away. This means his ability to be an effective marquee draw for big-budget blockbusters may be limited to just his MI franchise, and even then, its success may be more dependent on the skills of the director.
Cruise has been down before and bounced back and the studios behind the films he has coming out must hope that he can do so again. A key question is whether audiences who left, came back for MI-4 and left again can still be enticed back or if they're gone for good.
At 50, the clock is ticking on how many more high-octane MI films Cruise can or should do to try and reclaim his box office position.
Cruise isn't the only mega-star who seems to find it difficult to move away from tentpole fare and all its attendant benefits. After tasting success with Pirates of the Caribbean, Johnny Depp has rarely ventured far from heavily made-up fantasy characters. And Depp too has had to contend with disappointing box office numbers for his recent non-POTC films -- Rum Diary and Dark Shadows.
Cruise and Depp are the same age and have 3 Oscar nominations each. It may be time for both to move away from blockbuster fare and tackle more challenging, dramatic roles which they are clearly capable of. Serious films may not pay as much, but then surely at this point both Cruise and Depp no longer need the extra money and an Oscar would be a nice addition on their mantle.
- Fussy
From boxoffice.com
Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
Fri, Dec. 28 - Sun, Dec. 30| # | Title | weekend | Locations | Avg. | Total | Wks. | Dist. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | $32,920,000 | -11% | 4,100 | 0 | $8,029 | $222,702,900 | 3 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
| 2 | Django Unchained | $30,688,000 | -- | 3,010 | -- | $10,195 | $64,008,265 | 1 | Weinstein Company |
| 3 | Les Miserables (2012) | $28,027,000 | -- | 2,814 | -- | $9,960 | $67,465,425 | 1 | Universal |
| 4 | Parental Guidance | $14,800,000 | -- | 3,367 | -- | $4,396 | $29,588,692 | 1 | Fox |
| 5 | Jack Reacher | $14,010,000 | -10% | 3,352 | 0 | $4,180 | $44,661,000 | 2 | Paramount |
| 6 | This is 40 | $13,186,000 | 14% | 2,914 | 1 | $4,525 | $37,116,290 | 2 | Universal |
| 7 | Lincoln | $7,509,000 | 36% | 1,966 | -327 | $3,819 | $132,038,797 | 8 | Disney / DreamWorks |
| 8 | The Guilt Trip | $6,700,000 | 27% | 2,431 | 0 | $2,756 | $21,101,614 | 2 | Paramount |
| 9 | Monsters, Inc. 3D | $6,363,000 | 33% | 2,618 | 0 | $2,430 | $18,489,464 | 2 | Disney |
| 10 | Rise of The Guardians | $4,900,000 | -15% | 2,055 | -976 | $2,384 | $90,230,230 | 6 | Paramount / DreamWorks |
| 11 | Skyfall | $4,600,000 | -5% | 1,637 | -728 | $2,810 | $289,625,000 | 8 | Sony / Columbia |
| 12 | Life of Pi | $3,825,000 | -5% | 1,178 | -572 | $3,247 | $84,695,184 | 6 | Fox |
| 13 | The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 | $2,450,000 | -7% | 1,191 | -809 | $2,057 | $286,129,776 | 7 | Lionsgate / Summit |
The Hobbit’ Remains #1; ‘Django Unchained’ Outpaces ‘Les Misérables’ for #2December 30, 2012 08:26 AM
Warner's The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey grossed an estimated $32.9 million over the weekend to lead the weekend box office for a third consecutive frame. The Peter Jackson directed 3D fantasy film was able to hold off new releases Django Unchained and Les Misérables in a close three-way race this weekend. With the aid of the holiday season and very good word of mouth, The Hobbit fell a slim 11 percent from last weekend. In comparison, 2007's I Am Legend fell 18 percent in its third weekend to gross $27.41 million, while 2001's The Fellowship of the Ring fell 18 percent in its second weekend to gross $38.70 million (both comparisons occurred in years when Christmas fell on a Tuesday). The Hobbit has grossed $222.70 million through 17 days of domestic release. That places the film 14.5 percent ahead of the $194.49 million 17-day take of I Am Legend and 9 percent behind the $243.59 million 17-day gross of 2002's The Two Towers.On the international front The Hobbit grossed $106.5 million from 62 foreign territories this weekend. The film has now taken in $464.0 million internationally and $686.7 million worldwide. The Hobbit debuted with $18.6 million in Australia and registered third weekend grosses of $16.7 million in Germany, $10.9 million in the United Kingdom and $8.6 million in France.
Django Unchained placed in a close second with an estimated $30.7 million. The Quentin Tarantino directed western from The Weinstein Company gained momentum on Friday and Saturday on the heels of an already solid midweek start. After increasing 37 percent to gross $9.69 million on Friday, the film increased 17 percent to gross $11.35 million on Saturday. The film's three-day to Friday ratio of 3.17 to 1 is a good sign going forward. Strong early word of mouth (the film earned an A- rating on CinemaScore) and the film's Christmas Day start (as good as it was) being a bit deflated given its themes both helped out Django Unchained over the weekend. Django Unchained has grossed $64.01 million in six days. That is 84 percent stronger than the $34.74 million six-day start of 2001's Ali and 27 percent stronger than the $50.57 million six-day August 2009 launch of Tarantino's last film, Inglourious Basterds.
Les Misérables finished in third with an estimated $28.0 million. Universal's highly anticipated musical proved to be quite front-loaded towards its strong Christmas Day and Boxing Day performances during its first six days of release, but nonetheless has grossed an impressive $67.47 million to date domestically. That places Les Misérables 106 percent ahead of the $32.68 million grossed by 2006's Dreamgirls in its first six days of semi-wide release and 94 percent ahead of the six-day start of Ali. With the initial rush-out for the film out of the way, Les Misérables will hope to stabilize going forward with the aid of strong word of mouth (the film earned a very encouraging A rating on CinemaScore) and continued awards season buzz. The audience breakdown for Les Misérables skewed heavily towards female moviegoers (67 percent).
Les Misérables was very strong internationally this weekend, where it grossed $38.3 million from just 8 foreign territories. That places the film's international total at $48.7 million and early worldwide haul at $116.2 million. Key international takes this weekend included a $20.1 million six-day haul in Korea and a $8.3 million five-day haul in Australia.
Fox's Parental Guidance debuted in fourth place with an estimated take of $14.8 million. The comedy starring Billy Crystal and Bette Midler has grossed a stronger than expected $29.59 million through six days of release. Given the film's daily holding patterns thus far, it appears to be skewing somewhere in the middle of a film aimed at older adults and a film aimed at family audiences. Parental Guidance is currently running 76 percent stronger than the $16.80 million six-day start of 2007's The Water Horse. With a lack of new family options during the month of January, Parental Guidance will have a good chance of holding up well going forward. The film's A- rating on CinemaScore is also an encouraging sign.
Internationally, Parental Guidance grossed $7.0 million from 7 foreign territories this weekend. Key grosses included $2.8 million in Australia, $2.1 million in the United Kingdom and $1.4 million in Mexico.
Paramount's Jack Reacher and Universal's This Is 40 remained relatively close this weekend with respective estimated fifth and sixth place takes of $14.0 million and $13.2 million. Jack Reacher fell 10 percent from last weekend's debut, while This Is 40 was up a healthy 14 percent. Respective ten-day grosses stand at $44.66 million for Jack Reacher and at $37.12 million for This Is 40, as both films continue to perform in line with pre-release expectations.
In other box office news, Sony's Skyfall reached the $1 billion worldwide milestone this weekend. Respective international and domestic total grosses for the blockbuster James Bond film stand at $710.6 million and $289.6 million.
From boxoffice.com
Weekend Predictions: 'Django Unchained', 'Les Miserables' & 'Parental Guidance'
December 26, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff
Crowds will be in full force this weekend as audiences have their plates filled with eight new releases since December 21. This final weekend of 2012 should be a big one thanks to the rush of adults and kids alike between the lucrative Christmas and New Year's holidays.
Django Unchained
PROS:
- Quentin Tarantino's established fan base plus his added appeal coming off the huge success of Inglorious Basterds three years ago gives this some of the highest upfront awareness that a Tarantino film has ever had.
- The all-star ensemble cast will attract a variety of audiences.
- Marketing has been steady and consistent while reviews are excellent.
CONS:
- The Christmas-timed release for a violent film could put off some moviegoers.
Les Miserables (2012)
PROS:
- The musical stands as one of the most beloved of all-time.
- An all-star cast helps to turn this into even more of a must-see film for the general audience.
- Reviews have been solid and the film is already generating significant Oscar buzz, particularly for Anne Hathaway and Hugh Jackman.
- Pre-sales on Fandango reached record status for a Christmas release, topping their 2009 advance sales activity for Sherlock Holmes.
CONS:
- Musicals are hit and miss at the box office. Could Les Miserables be front-loaded by its fans?
Parental Guidance
PROS:
- Billy Crystal, Bette Midler and Marisa Tomei offer some familiarity for adult audiences.
- The family market is relatively empty right now with Monsters, Inc. 3D performing at low levels and The Hobbit remaining the only viable option since November releases.
- Past family comedies released at this time of year have over-performed. See: Cheaper by the Dozen.
CONS:
- The older cast could easily be a turn-off for younger audiences.
- Are Crystal and Midler still strong enough box office draws for older crowds?
Check out our predictions for these films and the rest of this weekend's top 10 in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | Dec 14, 2012 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $32,300,000 | $219,500,000 |
| Les Miserables (2012) | Dec 25, 2012 | Universal | $28,800,000 | $64,500,000 |
| Django Unchained | Dec 25, 2012 | Weinstein Company | $22,800,000 | $52,500,000 |
| Parental Guidance | Dec 25, 2012 | Fox | $14,300,000 | $29,000,000 |
| Jack Reacher | Dec 21, 2012 | Paramount | $13,300,000 | $44,800,000 |
| This is 40 | Dec 21, 2012 | Universal | $12,700,000 | $38,200,000 |
| The Guilt Trip | Dec 19, 2012 | Paramount | $7,500,000 | $23,200,000 |
| Lincoln | Nov 9, 2012 | Disney / DreamWorks | $6,500,000 | $130,500,000 |
| Monsters, Inc. 3D | Dec 19, 2012 | Disney | $5,800,000 | $17,800,000 |
| Rise of The Guardians | Nov 21, 2012 | Paramount / DreamWorks | $4,700,000 | $89,500,000 |
| Skyfall | Nov 8, 2012 | Sony / Columbia | $4,500,000 | $289,200,000 |
| Life of Pi | Nov 21, 2012 | Fox | $4,300,000 | $85,500,000 |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Nov 16, 2012 | Weinstein Company | $3,800,000 | $27,300,000 |
