Friday, December 21, 2012

Gurus + weekend

It wasn't surprising that The Hobbit had a steep drop from last week's already lower-than-expected numbers.  The film's "A+" Cinemascore was at odds with its broader audience RT score of 81% which is lower than all 3 of the previous LOTR films -- indicating that the Cinemascore was wildly inflated by hard-core opening night fans.  

This weekend, Jack Reacher seems to be following a similar pattern with an "A-" Cinemascore while its broader RT score is down to 75%.  After Brad Bird's entertaining over-the-top spectacles helped make MI-4 the highest grossing film in the franchise and the highest of Cruise's career, studios felt it was safe to bet on Cruise again and he has back to back to back action films coming out.  The strategy seems puzzling as it risks audience fatigue at a time when Cruise's PR problems have resurfaced.   Cruise has Oblivion by Joseph Kosinski (Tron Legacy) coming out in April 2013 and Doug Liman's All You Need is Kill on March 7, 2014 . Kill was originally announced for March 14, 2014, setting it up for a potentially ruinous showdown with Maleficent before studio execs advanced it by a week.  Neither Kosinski nor Liman has impressed critically or commercially so they will be depending heavily on Cruise's box office clout which has been spotty of late.  His only bonafide hit over the last 5 years is MI-4 and I give Brad Bird more credit for that.

I don't expect Reacher's $15.6M opening weekend is making execs at Universal (Oblivion) or Warner (Kill) all that sanguine given that it's Cruise in his bread and butter action mode and Lee Child's bestselling series has a big fan base.   That combination would have led Paramount to expect it to open above $20M when they first greenlit the project.  Reacher's director, Christopher McQuarrie, will re-team with Cruise for MI-5 which by then will be Cruise's 4th action film in a row and it will be interesting to see how that film fares vis-a-vis MI-4.

- Fussy


From The Playlist

Box Office: 'The Hobbit' Holds Off 'Jack Reacher' & 'This Is 40'; 'Zero Dark Thirty' Starts Strong

  by Gabe Toro
December 23, 2012 12:04 PM

'The Hobbit' what happened? You were supposed to be our hero, 'The Hobbit.' The “Lord Of The Rings” pictures, all released during the holiday period, had steady-to-muscular second weekend holds. But 'The Hobbit,' you’re looking more like an average blockbuster, losing almost 60% of your audience. What’s going on? You were expected to dominate this frame like you did last weekend. Could it be that your mighty Cinemascore was inflated by the first-weekend Tolkien superfans? Could it be that your ad campaign simply emphasized the ties to the earlier films, implying less of an individual story and instead, “Yes, more of this”? Oh, 'The Hobbit,' you’ve disappointed us greatly.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” is still pulling in enough money to justify the expenditure. Overseas, the film did the bulk of its damage already, however, it very much looks like the billion dollars pulled in by “The Lord of The Rings: Return of The King” is out of reach. But never fear: chances are, audiences spent the weekend shopping to deal with an early-week Christmas, and it’s very likely families will continue to make 'The Hobbit' a top attraction into the new year. $300 million domestic is still a possibility, though it would have to show a stronger hold next weekend to maintain that pace.

The first two 'Hobbit' films are said to cost (after rebates) somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million each, essentially double what the first two 'Lord Of The Rings' films cost. You would have to think that WB are a bit concerned. To be certain, 'The Hobbit' has a massive core audience, but core audiences don’t drive films to a billion dollars; casual low-interest moviegoers do, and right now it seems like they're not turning out in the same numbers. The movie is looking, domestically at least, more like "King Kong" than any of the LOTR pictures, but it's not exactly the strongest launching-off point for a new trilogy.

Meanwhile, expectations were muted for “Jack Reacher,” which was pushed as more of an off-brand entry for Tom Cruise. The ad presence seemed to dim in the days up to the release, due to the recent tragedy in Newtown. But it was a somewhat tough sell in the first place, selling Cruise as a vigilante bruiser, but downplayed any story that could interest potential ticket-buyers. And those familiar with the best-selling book series were not enticed with the prospect of the diminutive star stepping in the considerably huge boots of Reacher himself, often described as a hulking giant of a man.

Placing the film in the heart of the holiday season was an attempt to grab the same audience that spent last Christmas making “Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol” Cruise’s biggest hit of all-time. But even though the ads attempted to hide this fact, “Jack Reacher” was always destined to be a much smaller effort, costing a respectable $60 million (which isn’t very much once Cruise’s salary is subtracted). But despite the sometimes-negative press, Cruise is still Cruise: superstar comfort food for casual audiences who like to know what they’re getting. “Tom Cruise Action Film” is basically a genre similar to “Superhero Film” at this point, so that basic brand recognition could allow the film to quietly play through January as the top choice for action junkies and, possibly, teen audiences. And while it is fairly long for what seems like a generic procedural, one cannot ignore that it seems to be the only wide release out there that isn’t eleventy billion hours long.

Speaking of overlong, “This Is Forty.” “Knocked Up” was only five years ago, but given how prolific Judd Apatow has been over the years, it might as well be a distant memory. This had none of that film’s emphasis on youthful fun and quipping despite using the title as part of the marketing campaign, instead hoping that the Apatow fanbase had aged. But those hoping for a similar experience to “Knocked Up” helped give this effort a ‘B-’ Cinemascore, which is likely not what the studio was hoping for. This opening is less than half of the initial showing for Apatow’s “Funny People,” itself considered a disappointment at the time. And while the sell was on Apatow as a brand, it's clear that Paul Rudd (who also led the Apatow produced, Universal released flop "Wanderlust" earlier this year) and Leslie Mann aren't star power draws, and perhaps better utilized as strong supporting players.

Maintaining a level box office from last weekend was “Rise Of The Guardians,” which inexplicably has had no competition for the CGI-toon dollar since its release five weeks ago. How is this possible? How is it that Hollywood was asleep for so long that they left all of December bereft of animated kiddie fare, particularly as it feels like we’re bombarded with them every three weeks? Perhaps there were fears 'The Hobbit' would be ruling the marketplace, but whatever the case, 'Guardians' will benefit from being the only ‘toon around at Christmas, and the only seasonal offering, allowing it to possibly pole-vault over $100 million by next weekend.That looked unlikely after the film’s tepid opening, so it’s something of a victory. Then again, DreamWorks Animation expected a lot more, and they’ve been flummoxed with the lack of traction overseas, so, not much of a victory here.

Holding strong in its eighth week of release was “Lincoln,” solidifying it’s position for the Academy Award voting by also looking like the people’s choice -- a steady stream of ticketbuyers could keep the film afloat into the new year, possibly up to $140-$150 million or more. It depends on if award nominations in January provide the film with an extra oomph . Still, for Daniel Day-Lewis, long considered the finest actor of his generation, this is his first $100 million domestic grosser, and the first real suggestion that the notoriously reclusive legend could be legitimately bankable. “Quick, get this guy in a cape and tights,” said some asshole in Hollywood.

The bloom is off the rose for Disney’s 3D re-releases, with “Monsters Inc. 3D” failing to move the needle since its Wednesday debut. The 3D-ified Pixar favorite had a piddling per-screen average on 2,618 screens, strictly playing to the animation nuts. It’s been a downward trend since Disney brought back “The Lion King” to a surprising near-$100 million gross last year. This cow has sufficiently been milked, though at least they had a built-in excuse: this re-issue essentially works as a pricey ad for the upcoming “Monsters University.” You have to wonder, though, given that Disney opted for a couple of Pixar films in their 3D re-release plan, while also openly giving a platform to sequels to “Monsters Inc” and “Cars” as well as next summer’s spinoff “Planes” -- is the over-familiarity a possible threat to dilute Pixar’s brand? The flimsy overseas numbers for “Brave” this summer don’t dispute this.

The Guilt Trip” opened and… yeah. Other than pushy grandmas and that distant aunt you never talk to, who exactly was the audience for “The Guilt Trip”? Why would you even title a movie “The Guilt Trip” in the first place, releasing it during the holidays? Might as well call it, “You’re A Miserable Excuse For A Son” and charge 3D prices. While marrying Seth Rogen's youthful audience with Barbra Streisand's huge older fanbase might have seemed genius on paper, it didn't work in execution, as nobody seemed to want to see it.

Skyfall” is now spitting distance from $1 billion worldwide, and is expected to hit that target by the end of 2012.  “Life Of Pi” is also wrapping up, but a nine figure landing spot is unlikely domestically -- overseas is where the film continues to bring in the heavy cheddar.

In limited release, "Zero Dark Thirty" got out of the gate huge, torture endorsing or not. It played to a spectacular $82,000 per screen average on five screens ni New York and Los Angeles, and as chatter grows around the movie, that January 11th wide opening release looks more and more like a smart move by Sony. Particularly as it will come the day after the Oscar nominations are announced. Paramount put out its third movie of the weekend after “Jack Reacher” and “The Guilt Trip” with two-a-day shows for “Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away.” The 3D attraction grabbed a so-so touristy audience with $2.3 million to land outside of the top ten. Finally, “The Impossible” will collect a respectable $115k at its fifteen locations. Support your local arthouse theaters, boys and girls.

1. The Hobbit: Un Journey Expectado (WB) - $36.7 million ($149.9 mil.)
2. Tiny Enforcer (Paramount) - $15.6 million
3. Judd Apatow Presents: Marriage Counseling (Universal) - $12 million
4. Rise Of The Guardians (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.9 million ($79.7 mil.)
5. The 16th President - No Googling (Dreamworks/Disney) - $5.6 million ($116.8 mil.)
6. The Guilt Trip (Disney) - $5.3 million ($7.4 mil.)
7. Trailer For Monsters University (Disney) - $5 million ($6.5 mil.)
8. Skyfall (Sony) - $4.7 million ($279.9 mil.)
9. Life Of Pizza Pi (Fox) - $3.8 million ($76.1 mil.)
10. The Twilight Saga: Yeah, They're Still Buying Tickets For This (Summit/Lionsgate) - $2.6 million ($281.6 mil.)


Gurus: Steve Pond and I 4 best picture. Miz - rest Lincoln


Rank Last Chart Best Picture BreznicanEllwoodFeinbergHammondHowellKargerOlsenPolandPondStoneTapleyThompsonWhippWloszczyna Votes Total
1 1 Lincoln
DreamWorks/Disney
1 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 14 134
2 2 Zero Dark Thirty
Sony Pictures
2 1 2 5 2 5 2 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 14 119
3 4 Argo
Warner Bros
4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 14 107
4 3 Les Miserables
Universal
3 4 4 2 4 1 3 5 4 6 1 5 3 5 14 104
5 5 Silver Linings Playbook
The Weinstein Company
5 5 5 4 5 3 5 2 5 4 5 6 5 4 14 91
6 6 Life of Pi
20th Century Fox
6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 2 6 6 14 73
7 8 Beasts of the Southern Wild
Fox Searchlight
9 7 7 8 10 8 10
7 8 9 8
8 12 33
8 7 Django Unchained
The Weinstein Company

8 10 10 9 7 6
8 9
7 9 7 11 31
9 9 Amour
Sony Classics
8
8 7 7 9 8 6

7 10 10
10 30
10 10 Moonrise Kingdom
Focus Features
7


8 10 9 10 10 7 8 9 8 10 11 25


Read the rest at MCN's Gurus of Gold



From TOH

Holiday Box Office: 'Jack Reacher' Best of So-So New Openers

Box Office by Tom Brueggemann
December 22, 2012 5:39 PM
Warning signs for this year's year-end box office prospects appeared in Friday's numbers. Even though pre-Christmas Friday was two days earlier this year (generally the closer the day is to the holiday, the fewer people are going to movies), the take for the Top Ten was only $28 million yesterday, compared to $37 million on the same Friday last year.
That's despite the #1 film for the day - "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" (Warner Brothers) - grossing more (because of 3-D and other surcharges) than last year's "Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol," also in its second week. But while "The Hobbit" was tops for the day, the prequel dropped a staggering $26 million from its opening day. Even with the $13-million midnight first show grosses removed, it still dropped nearly 60% - not a good sign for a film that, while its US and international take already is impressive (over $300 million), doesn't look certain to hold a #1 position indefinitely.
Four new releases plus one 3-D do-over opened this week. Given the smaller potential audience, which makes numbers smaller, some or all of these could improve starting Tuesday. But it still looks like a weaker than usual array of films so far.
Best of the bunch was the Tom Cruise-starrer "Jack Reacher" (Paramount) which came in #2 for the day with $5.1 million, a bit better than half of what "MI:GP" did last year on its second weekend. Expectations, at least domestically, haven't been high for this action effort, and it seems to be performing no better than hoped -- at least so far. As with all the openers though, any good word of mouth will have a particularly potent impact -- at no time of the year do people gather and discuss movies more than during Christmas.
Judd Apatow's family (literally) comedy/drama "This Is 40" (Universal) -- more likely to succumb to pre-Christmas doldrums because of its older appeal - managed third place at $3.7 million. Perceived comedies often perform well this time of the year, and the marketing of the film pushed similarities to his other films such as "Knocked Up." How those who sample the film over the weekend react to the comparison will have a lot to do with reaction and its further success.
Wednesday's openers - the Seth Rogen/Barbra Streisand "Guilt Trip" (Warner Brothers) and Disney's 3-D return of "Monsters, Inc." both continued their very weak performance, coming in at 5th and 7th respectively, both under $1.5 million for the day. Their prospects don't look good going forward even with the holiday bump.
The final opener is an oddball of sorts - "Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away" (Paramount) in 3-D, squeezed in as one matinee and one early evening show daily, an almost unheard of release pattern. It managed 10th place at under $1 million at only 840 theaters.


From boxoffice.com

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic) Fri, Dec. 21 - Sun, Dec. 23

Wide (1000+)

#Titleweekend
Locations
Avg.TotalWks.Dist.
1The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey$34,000,000-60%4,10055$8,293$147,152,9002Warner Bros. / New Line
2Jack Reacher$15,500,000--3,352--$4,624$15,500,0001Paramount
3This is 40$11,500,000--2,913--$3,948$11,500,0001Universal
4Rise of The Guardians$7,000,000-2%3,031-356$2,309$80,794,2305Paramount / DreamWorks
5Lincoln$5,100,000-27%2,2938$2,224$116,247,8247Disney / DreamWorks
6Monsters, Inc. 3D$5,000,000--2,618--$1,910$6,484,9811Disney
7The Guilt Trip$4,800,000--2,431--$1,974$6,830,6141Paramount
8Skyfall$4,500,000-31%2,717-207$1,656$279,591,7747Sony / Columbia
9Life of Pi$3,800,000-30%1,750-798$2,171$76,156,2445Fox
10The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2$2,700,000-47%2,000-1042$1,350$281,705,7346Lionsgate / Summit
11Wreck-It Ralph$2,100,000-35%1,444-805$1,454$172,022,5258Disney


Tom Cruise Has Lowest Opening Weekend Box Office Just About Ever



UPDATE: With the exception of the oddity called “Lions for Lambs,”  Tom Cruise has never had a lower opening weekend box office than with “Jack Reacher.” I’m counting here his movies that opened in more than 2,000 theatres. “Reacher”  took in just $15.6 million. That’s actually less than each of Cruise’s last two films, “Knight and Day” and “Valkyrie,” which were in similar size releases and– in the case of the lamentable “Valkyrie”– at Christmas as well. Those two releases opened in the $20 mil range.
You have to go back 20 years to “Far and Away” to find a Cruise opening weekend that made less money–$10 mil, only 1800 theaters. Is this a referendum for Cruise in non Mission Impossible vehicles? It’s definitely a wake up call. As I’ve said for years, his best shot at regaining a larger audience is to find a new “Jerry Maguire” role where he can woo the female audience with his infectious grin. He’s also going to have to get real with promotion– actual interviews, with real answers to questions. And maybe he’ll get the message that Scientology has helped destroy three marriages, and now, possibly, it imperils his career.
Earlier: The confluence of many things, starting with the Newtown, Connecticut killings and ending with Tom Cruise’s aversion to doing much personal publicity, has ended with a disappointing opening night for “Jack Reacher.” Playing in over 3,300 theaters, “Reacher” made only $5.1 million on Friday night.
That’s considerably less–a million dollars or so — than “Knight and Day” made in 2010 on its first Friday night. That movie went on to make just around $78 million.
Of course, the producers of “Jack Reacher” say it only cost $60 million. That’s ridiculous since Cruise gets $20 million off the top. And they spent a lot on international premieres, and canceled junkets. No matter– “Jack Reacher” didn’t cost just $40 million other than Cruise’s salary.
“Reacher” is a key referendum on Tom Cruise outside of “Mission Impossible” franchise. If it makes $15 million or less this weekend, that’s not a good sign. “Reacher” has been clobbered by the main critics. It’s also up against “The Hobbit”–which made twice as much money last night– as well as lingering and popular films like “Skyfall” and “Lincoln.” If a new Tom Cruise isn’t making much of a dent in the box office, that’s not good news.
Tomorrow we’ll see how the whole thing played out.
PS Good news: what no one’s talking about is that Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi” has quietly cruised to $73 million very quickly. How nice! I thought this Pi might have been undercooked, but it’s not so. Could very well be a Best Picture nominee, along with Lincoln, Argo, Silver Linings, Django, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Les Miz, The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and –hmmm– Amour?
thanks to Boxofficemojo.com:
Date Title (click to view) Studio Lifetime Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Rank
12/21/12 Jack Reacher Par. $15,600,000 3,352 $15,600,000 3,352 30
6/15/12 Rock of Ages WB (NL) $38,518,613 3,470 $14,437,269 3,470 25
12/16/11 Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol Par. $209,397,903 3,555 $12,785,204 425 3
6/23/10 Knight & Day Fox $76,423,035 3,104 $20,139,985 3,098 19
12/25/08 Valkyrie UA $83,077,833 2,838 $21,027,007 2,711 16
8/13/08 Tropic Thunder P/DW $110,515,313 3,473 $25,812,796 3,319 -
11/9/07 Lions for Lambs UA $15,002,854 2,216 $6,702,434 2,215 32
5/5/06 Mission: Impossible III Par. $134,029,801 4,059 $47,743,273 4,054 10
6/29/05 War of the Worlds Par. $234,280,354 3,910 $64,878,725 3,908 1
8/6/04 Collateral DW $101,005,703 3,205 $24,701,458 3,188 14
12/5/03 The Last Samurai WB $111,127,263 2,938 $24,271,354 2,908 12
7/26/02 Austin Powers in Goldmember
(Cameo)
NL $213,307,889 3,613 $73,071,188 3,613 -
6/21/02 Minority Report Fox $132,072,926 3,001 $35,677,125 3,001 11
4/19/02 Space Station 3-D (IMAX)
(Narrator)
Imax $86,738,386 64 $489,488 24 -
12/14/01 Vanilla Sky Par. $100,618,344 2,842 $25,015,518 2,742 15
5/24/00 Mission: Impossible II Par. $215,409,889 3,669 $57,845,297 3,653 2
12/17/99 Magnolia NL $22,455,976 1,086 $193,604 7 28
7/16/99 Eyes Wide Shut WB $55,691,208 2,483 $21,706,163 2,411 23
12/13/96 Jerry Maguire Sony $153,952,592 2,531 $17,084,296 2,531 8
5/22/96 Mission: Impossible Par. $180,981,856 3,012 $45,436,830 3,012 4
11/11/94 Interview with the Vampire WB $105,264,608 2,604 $36,389,705 2,604 13
7/2/93 The Firm Par. $158,348,367 2,393 $25,400,000 2,393 7
12/11/92 A Few Good Men Col. $141,340,178 2,201 $15,517,468 1,925 9
5/22/92 Far and Away Uni. $58,883,840 1,885 $10,194,520 1,583 22
6/29/90 Days of Thunder



on December 19, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

Weekend Predictions: 'The Guilt Trip', 'Monsters, Inc. 3D', 'Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away', 'Jack Reacher' & 'This Is 40'



The peak of holiday season kicks into full gear this week with five new wide releases joining the market. The Guilt Trip and Monsters, Inc. 3D open on Wednesday, December 19 while Jack Reacher, This Is 40 and Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away launch on Friday, December 21.
Meanwhile, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to hold well as families begin turning out during the holiday rush. Due to the high midnight figure on its opening day, expect a sizable Friday-to-Friday drop followed by some stabilization for the film. The remainder of the market should also exhibit good holds.

The Guilt Trip
PROS:
- Seth Rogen still has his fans out there, and Barbara Streisand could bring in the older female audience that Rogen lacks.
- Opening the week before Christmas gives it a chance to spread its wings over the long run - pending good word of mouth.
CONS:
- Rogen's box office draw has never fully established itself while Streisand's audience is getting older and could easily opt for This Is 40 this weekend.
- The market is highly competitive for adult audiences beginning this weekend.
- Reviews are looking sour.

Monsters, Inc. 3D
PROS:
- The Pixar name and "new animated classic" status of the film give it an advantage.
- Outside of The Hobbit, families haven't had much to choose from since Rise of the Guardians disappointed in its opening last month.
CONS:
- 3D re-releases tend to be more "flop" than "hit", as evidenced by Finding Nemo 3D's lackluster run during the fall months.

Jack Reacher
PROS:
- Tom Cruise is still an A-list star and comes off the success of last year's Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol with a potential franchise-starter.
- Audiences haven't had an action flick to choose from since Skyfall.
CONS:
- Cruise has been back in the public eye this year, and not in a great way. He's also coming off the box office disappointment of Rock of Ages.
- With the enormously positive reception toward Skyfall, audiences may be even more picky than usual when it comes to this genre.

This Is 40
PROS:
- Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann are part of the Judd Apatow draw, which got a big boost thanks to last year's Bridesmaids.
- Selling the film as a "sort-of sequel" to Knocked Up gives audiences something familiar to latch onto.
- The lack of adult comedies lately could result in a higher demand than usual for this kind of film.
- Early word of mouth has been positive.
CONS:
- Apatow's last directorial effort (Funny People) was a box office disappointment.
- Opening the weekend before Christmas means the target adult audience could wait and see this next week.
- Reviews aren't glowing.

Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away
PROS:
- Cirque Du Soleil has its fair share of fans out there. Their IMAX film grossed over $15 million back in 2000.
CONS:
- With a slew of new releases opening against it this week and next, its hard to imagine this specialty film finding much of an audience.


Check out our predictions for these films and the rest of this weekend's top 11 in the table below.
Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dec 14, 2012 Warner Bros. / New Line $42,000,000 $155,000,000
Jack Reacher Dec 21, 2012 Paramount $13,800,000 $13,800,000
This is 40 Dec 21, 2012 Universal $13,200,000 $13,200,000
Monsters, Inc. 3D Dec 19, 2012 Disney $9,000,000* $13,000,000
Rise of The Guardians Nov 21, 2012 Paramount / DreamWorks $6,300,000 $80,200,000
The Guilt Trip Dec 19, 2012 Paramount $6,000,000* $9,000,000
Lincoln Nov 9, 2012 Disney / DreamWorks $5,500,000 $116,700,000
Skyfall Nov 8, 2012 Sony / Columbia $4,500,000 $279,700,000
Life of Pi Nov 21, 2012 Fox $4,000,000 $76,700,000
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 Nov 16, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit $3,100,000 $282,200,000
Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away Dec 21, 2012 Paramount $3,000,000 $3,000,000