From boxoffice.com
2013 Preview: Will March Feel Like Summer Again?
March 2012 shattered box office expectations in a way that will be tough for March 2013 to live up to.
To recap: Project X and Dr. Seuss' The Lorax started March 2012 off on a high note by opening to $21.1 million and $70.2 million at home, respectively. Lorax went on to rake in $349.7 million worldwide, while Project X managed $96.7 million. The following week brought the release of two massive duds: John Carter ($283 million worldwide against an estimated total budget of $300 million) and A Thousand Words ($20.5 million worldwide against an estimated total budget of $70 million). 21 Jump Street helped turned things around the following week by debuting to an impressive $36.3 million domestically on its way to $201.9 million worldwide. Then, on March 23, the Hunger Games phenomenon hit. Lionsgate's action flick posted a staggering $152.5 million opening en route to a $686.5 million worldwide haul. The strength of Hunger Games cast a shadow over Wrath of the Titans ($301.9 million worldwide compared to $493.2 million for Clash of the Titans, its predecessor) and Mirror Mirror ($162.4 million worldwide, an underwhelming $64.9 million of which came from North America).
The success of Lorax, 21 Jump Street and The Hunger Games combined with other robust earners made March 2012 feel a lot like the summer. The month recorded a total domestic box office tally of $942.8 million, which is dangerously close to May 2012's $1.02 billion rake.
A strong March can change the way that the mainstream media writes about Hollywood after the crucial first quarter comes to a close. It can be the difference between "People aren't going to the movies anymore" and "The movie industry is clearly booming."
So how will March 2013 compare? Here's our breakdown.
HEAVYWEIGHTS:
Warner Bros. is clearly hoping that Lord of the Rings fans will line up for Bryan Singer's Jack the Giant Killer. Singer knows how to hit it big, but Superman Returns also proved that he has the ability to deliver a bomb. This one is far from a sure thing.
With Oz: The Great and Powerful, Disney will look to repeat the success it had in March 2010 with Alice in Wonderland, a $1 billion worldwide hit. Unfortunately, Oz star James Franco is no Johnny Depp. Grosses will be healthy, but Oz won't come close to $1 billion worldwide.
20th Century Fox will release DreamWorks Animation's The Croods on March 8. The Croods doesn't come with the same brand recognition that helped Lorax, so it might have a tough time matching the Universal release's impressive worldwide haul.
G.I. Joe: Retaliation was meant to be a summer movie until Paramount decided to move it away from June 2012 and into March 2013. We're betting that the move will pay off. Three factors should help Retaliation pass the $301.5 million worldwide haul of 2009's G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra: 1) The addition of 3D; 2) More Channing Tatum; 3) Bruce Willis in the cast.
PROMISING ENTRIES:
21 & Over--a film about crazy partying--should have no problem tapping into the same crowd that flocked to similarly-themed Project X.
Admission combines the talents of Tina Fey and Paul Rudd, two of the strongest comedic talents working today. How can it miss?
Carrie will entice horror enthusiasts in droves. Star Chloe Moretz is headed for big things.
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone reunites Bruce Almighty stars Jim Carrey and Steve Carell as dueling magicians. Both stars are losing their drawing power these days, but combining forces could help give them both a boost.
POTENTIAL SLEEPERS:
Open Road's The Host could turn into a Cloverfield-level hit if it connects in the right way.
The Place Beyond the Pines, a drama set in upstate New York starring Ryan Gosling and Bradley Cooper, could generate Oscar talk early in the year in order to become a must-see for adults seeking serious-minded entertainment.
Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confession of a Marriage Counselor looks promising based off its first trailer. Perry almost always stumbles at the box office when not playing Madea, but this could be the movie that finally breaks that streak. Added bonus: a lot of people will show up just to see if Kim Kardashian can act.
Colin Farrell continues to push for bigger things at the box office with Dead Man Down, a New York crime thriller. Expectations should remain modest for now based on Farrell's less-than-stellar track record.
THE VERDICT:
While there are a lot of promising films coming out in 2013, there is no Hunger Games on the horizon. As a result, March 2013's overall box office will almost certainly fall short of March 2012's.
2013 Preview: The Crowded Month of May
May 2013 is poised to kick off the summer movie season in a big way.
Living up to the impressive $1.024 billion haul that May 2012 earned won't be easy. The big challenge will be matching the impact of Marvel's The Avengers. Disney's superhero flick accounted for $532.5 million--or more than half--of May 2012's total. The Avengers cast a shadow over the rest of the month, and films such as Battleship and Dark Shadows opened soft as a result.
Disney/Marvel will kick off the summer season again this year with Iron Man 3 on May 3. The first full trailer for IM3 generated plenty of online enthusiasm, and the influence of Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight trilogy is clear in the somber, brooding preview. There's little doubt that Iron Man 3 will top the $128.1 million debut of Iron Man 2, but don't expect it to match the $207.4 million opening of The Avengers.
May 10 will bring the release of The Great Gatsby. The decision to move Gatsby from December 2012 to May 2013 should prove to be a wise one. Gatsby would have had to compete with other prestige flicks such as Les Miserables and Django Unchained. Now, the Warner Bros. release will serve as a refreshing bit of counter-programming for adults who could care less about The Avengers universe. (There are a few of them out there.) Gatsby's performance in 3D will be particularly interesting to watch. If it succeeds, more period dramas could rush to embrace the format. If it fails, it will mark another loss for the "EVERYTHING will be in 3D" prophets.
Star Trek Into Darkness comes a week after Gatsby on May 17. Again, the impact of Nolan/TDK is clear in the film's powerful trailer. It's working. Into Darkness lit up Twitter and Facebook after the premiere of the trailer. Director J.J. Abrams is masterfully turning the property into something that isn't just for, well, nerds. Into Darkness should easily top the $384.9 million worldwide haul of 2009's Star Trek.
Memorial Day weekend is worth keeping a close eye on. Three powerhouse films are set to open: Fast & Furious 6, The Hangover Part 3 and Epic, an animated film from the talents behind the Ice Age films and Rio. It'll be a rough fight for first place between F&F 6 and Hangover 3. The last Fast & Furious film opened to a whopping $71 million, while The Hangover Part 2 managed $86 million. It will come down to which franchise still has more life in it. Call it a coin flip at this point. There will still be plenty of room for Epic, but the animated flick has very big shoes to fill. Ice Age: Continental Drift has earned more than $879 million worldwide since opening in July, and Rio posted an impressive $486 million worldwide haul in 2011. If Epic comes even remotely close to those films at the box office then it will be a huge financial success.
The last major release of May 2013 will be Universal's The Purge on May 31. The stark drama about a future where martial law rules and murder is legal for brief periods of time faces a tough road to success
